Forecasts for the return of Ukrainians from abroad
The mass return of Ukrainians from abroad will not take place until 2027, according to forecasts from domestic experts in the field of migration policy. The reasons for this are the security conditions and the economic situation in Ukraine, which continue to influence citizens' decisions regarding their return to their homeland.
In 2025, a net outflow of about 0.2 million Ukrainians abroad is expected. A similar situation is forecasted for 2026, when the outflow of migrants will also amount to around 0.2 million people. These data indicate that, despite the desire of many Ukrainians to return, the circumstances remain challenging.
Impact of security conditions on migration
According to information from the Office of Migration Policy, shelling by the Russian Federation across the entire territory of Ukraine and terrorist attacks against the civilian population lead to a moderate outflow of migrants abroad. In addition, the continuation of the stay of Ukrainians in European Union countries, as well as the possibility of transitioning to stable residence regimes with a high probability, will restrain the active return of migrants in the forecast horizon.
It is also worth noting that after March 4, 2026, Ukrainians in Poland will be treated equally with other foreigners, which may affect their future decisions regarding their return to Ukraine. Overall, the situation with migration remains tense, and forecasts indicate the absence of mass returns of Ukrainians in the coming years.
This information underscores the ongoing challenges facing Ukraine amid war and economic instability. The return of Ukrainians depends not only on security aspects but also on the economic possibilities of the country, which remain uncertain. Legislative changes in the countries where migrants reside are also an important component that may influence their decisions regarding returning to their homeland.
Office of Migration Policy