Non-standard currency period in Ukraine
The end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 in Ukraine promise to be a non-standard period for the currency market. For the first time since the previous year, December 31 and January 1, according to the regulations of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), will be working days. This decision may significantly affect trading volumes and exchange rates on these dates.
On December 30, trading activity in the interbank foreign exchange market is expected to reach 230-340 million dollars. However, on the holiday days, December 31 and January 1, activity will decrease to 100 million dollars per day. The NBU may spend between 550 to 800 million dollars of reserves on these dates, which will also impact the overall market situation.
Impact of corporate payouts on the currency market
Payments of annual bonuses in the corporate sector are expected by the third decade of January 2026, which may additionally affect the currency market. The exchange rate forecast for the period from December 29 to January 2 indicates fluctuations of the dollar within 41.90-42.55 hryvnias, and the euro — 49.20-49.95 hryvnias. For the cash market, banks are offering the dollar exchange rate at 41.80-42.75 hryvnias and the euro — 49.10-50.15 hryvnias. Currency exchanges have set the dollar rate within 41.90-42.65 hryvnias, while the euro — 49.15-50.05 hryvnias.
After the holidays, starting from January 2, the interbank market is expected to return to volumes of 140-180 million dollars, which may indicate stabilization of the situation after the festive days. In conditions of increased volatility in the currency market, it is important to monitor changes that may occur during this period.
This period may become an important test for Ukraine's currency market, as unusual working days during the holidays may affect liquidity and price stability.
Investors and market participants need to be prepared for possible fluctuations, given the high dependence on NBU decisions and external economic factors. Considering the expected payments in the corporate sector, this may also become a factor influencing the further development of the situation in the currency segment.