Forecast for the Return of Ukrainian Migrants
According to the National Bank of Ukraine's (NBU) January 2026 inflation report, a large-scale return of Ukrainian migrants could begin in 2027–2028. The NBU projects a net positive return of approximately 100,000 people in 2027, potentially rising to 500,000 in 2028. This forecast, however, is met with skepticism from analysts who point to several factors that could influence migrants' willingness to come back. The ongoing conflict has displaced millions, creating one of Europe's largest refugee crises in decades.
Factors Influencing a Potential Return
Notably, the NBU itself predicts an outflow of around 200,000 more citizens in 2026 due to the security situation in Ukraine. Expert Vasyl Voskoboinik states that any forecast depends on when hostilities end, the terms of that conclusion, and the risk of a renewed attack from Russia.
'The security factor will be the most critical one in the coming years,' he emphasizes.
Voskoboinik also notes that people will seek not just a job, but a viable income, comparing their opportunities abroad to what might be available at home.
Expert Violetta Dvornikova highlights that Ukrainians are increasingly integrating into European societies and making long-term life plans, which reduces the likelihood of their return even after the war ends.
'While people initially viewed leaving as a temporary step, a significant portion now have stable jobs, new education, schooling for their children, and broad social networks—and this changes their decision in favor of staying,' says Dvornikova.
She adds that without competitive living conditions, employment, income prospects, and clear opportunities in Ukraine, the country risks permanently losing a significant part of its working-age population.
Thus, while the National Bank of Ukraine projects a migrant return in the coming years, the reality may prove more complex due to diverse factors including security, economic conditions, and the social ties Ukrainians have established abroad. These circumstances underscore the necessity for the Ukrainian government to work on creating a stable and secure environment to encourage migrants to return if possible. In the absence of such conditions, a significant portion of the population may remain abroad, which would have serious consequences for Ukraine's economy and social structure.
Understanding the factors that may deter Ukrainians from returning home after the conflict is essential for grasping the complexities of migration trends. As highlighted by experts, elements such as job stability and social integration abroad significantly influence these decisions. For a deeper analysis of why many may choose to remain overseas despite the end of the war, explore the various reasons affecting their return.