On the shores of Schleswig-Holstein, under the cold Baltic wind, the Steadfast Dart 26 exercises began. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius observed the landing of troops at the Putlos training area from the shore. 10,000 servicemen, 15 ships, 13 participating countries. At first glance, it seems like an impressive demonstration of power. At second glance, it is a dangerous illusion that has nothing to do with the reality of 2026.
The Geography and Logistics of Absurdity
The main feature of the current maneuvers is the absence of direct U.S. participation. Europe is trying to prove, primarily to itself, that it is capable of military subjectivity. However, the composition of the 'rapid reaction force' (Allied Reaction Force), which NATO calls its 'spearhead', looks paradoxical.
The bulk of the operation to protect the Baltic has been taken on by... the southerners: Turkey, Spain, Italy, and Greece. The security of the northern borders now depends on the expeditionary capabilities of Ankara and Rome. In the event of a real conflict, this 'mixed bag' will inevitably face the nightmare of incompatible communication systems and operational control, which cannot be hidden behind beautiful flags at exercises.
Scale: Two Brigades vs. New Reality
NATO proudly reports about 10,000 participants. However, for the standards of War 4.0 that we see today, this grouping is merely two incomplete brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And the main problem is not even the number.
This 'spearhead' enters the battlefield without a single UBAK (Strike UAV Company), without integrated EW systems and next-generation RER means. In modern warfare, 10,000 soldiers without swarms of drones and total electronic control is not an army but a target. It's a 'museum on tracks' that can land spectacularly on a beach but will be completely blinded and destroyed even before reaching the real frontline.
The Shadow of Józef Beck and the Technological Deadlock
The situation in which European capitals demonstrate determination without having either American power or their own technological breakthrough behind them recalls Polish Foreign Minister Józef Beck. In 1939, he also relied on external attributes of military power, ignoring the real balance of forces and technologies of his time.
Today, Brussels and Berlin risk repeating that mistake. In attempting to create an 'autonomous Europe' based on exhausted arsenals and outdated doctrines, they are turning into a political subject whose voice does not match its ability to take a hit. Without modern drone verticals, this entire Baltic fleet remains in the last century.
Lessons of Subjectivity
History teaches: at the negotiating table, where great powers divide spheres of influence, respect is not gained by the number of pennants on the horizon but by technological uniqueness.
Real subjectivity today is measured by the ability to neutralize the opponent's potential through asymmetric methods. While in Putlos the 'Italians' practice airborne operations of the past, the world recognizes only one argument — superiority in innovations. If Europe does not realize that 21st-century security is not about the number of battalions but the efficiency of UBAKs and AI systems, it risks finding itself back in 1945: not as the architect of a new world, but as an object of its division.