German Military Exercise Outlines a Rapid NATO Crisis
In December 2025, the German newspaper Die Welt conducted a military simulation exploring a potential Russian incursion into Lithuania in October 2026. The scenario demonstrated how Russia, using a force of 15,000 troops, could exploit allied indecision to severely undermine confidence in NATO's collective defense within a matter of days. This exercise has heightened concern among European military and political leaders, who are actively debating the timeline of a possible Russian threat as Moscow reportedly shifts to a full war economy. Such war games are critical tools for testing alliance vulnerabilities and strategic responses.
The Simulation's Detailed Scenario
The war game focused on the Lithuanian city of Marijampolė, with a population of about 35,000, situated between Russian and Belarusian territory. Lithuania maintains a peacetime military of 17,000 personnel, which can expand to 58,000 following immediate mobilization. Previous assessments in Berlin had suggested Russia would be unable to threaten NATO before 2029. However, recent data indicates Russia is recruiting approximately 35,000 new soldiers monthly, despite losing around 30,000 per month in Ukraine. This suggests Russia could potentially free up to 200,000 battle-hardened troops for other operations, altering the security calculus.
The simulation involved 16 former high-ranking German and NATO officials and experts. It was conducted in collaboration with the German Center for War Games at the Bundeswehr University of Helmut Schmidt. According to Ruben Brekelmans,
"Our assessment is that Russia will be able to deploy large troop contingents within one year."
He further noted,
"We see that they are already building up strategic reserves and expanding their presence along NATO's borders."
The game's results revealed that Russia framing an invasion as a humanitarian mission could be sufficient to cause the United States to refuse to invoke NATO's Article 5 on collective defense. Franz-Stefan Gady observed,
"Deterrence depends not only on capabilities, but also on whether the adversary believes in our resolve."
He emphasized,
"In the war game, my Russian counterparts and I knew: Germany would hesitate. That was enough for victory."
Bartłomiej Kot added,
"The Russians achieved most of their objectives while barely moving their own units,"noting that
"as soon as Russia starts talking about escalation, our thinking is already preconditioned that we must be the ones to de-escalate."
Gedrius Prameneckas expressed gratitude to Ukrainians, stating
"they give us time to better prepare every day with their blood and losses."
The exercise also underscored that
"if there is a deal on Ukraine, Russia will accelerate its war machine."Nico Lange stressed,
"If the goal is to show that NATO's Article 5 doesn't work, to split the Europeans, it takes will, not an exceptionally large military potential."
From a security perspective, Ruben Brekelmans pointed out,
"There is a gray zone, and as Russia takes additional steps, the gray zone becomes darker."Crucially, the decision on whether an Article 5 threshold has been crossed is made by the affected ally and the 31 other NATO members. Russia, of course, knows this is not an exact science and will attempt to push boundaries further.
The scenario modeled in the war game illustrates the potential risks to NATO from a sudden or decisive Russian military intervention in the Baltic region. It highlights the necessity for NATO allies to actively coordinate actions and develop robust deterrence strategies to prevent such outcomes. Given the continually shifting security landscape in Europe, it is imperative for NATO nations to persistently evaluate their military capabilities and readiness to address emerging challenges.