Assessing the Threat of a Major War
Analysts are examining the potential for a major new war between Russia and Europe, with the Baltic region as a focal point. The ongoing war in Ukraine, which began in 2022, is viewed as a tool for the internal transformation of the Russian regime. Experts suggest the Kremlin may escalate into a conflict with NATO if it cannot break its current strategic deadlock. Preparatory steps from both sides are reportedly already underway, with the positions of the United States and China likely to influence future developments. This analysis comes amid heightened concern over Russia's long-term strategic goals following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
On February 21, 2022, Russia recognized the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, a significant step in the context of the war with Ukraine. In June 2025, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated the conflict would not end until NATO halted its military presence in the Baltic states. Prior to this, on January 10, 2022, Russia issued an ultimatum to NATO demanding a return to the alliance's 1997 borders. Following the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, the Baltic Sea has become almost entirely surrounded by alliance members, significantly increasing regional tensions.
Military Buildup in the Region
Simultaneously, Russia is expanding its military footprint by establishing two new military districts in its northwest—the Leningrad and Moscow districts. Belarus is also intensifying its activities, moving armored vehicles and personnel to its western border, with Russian unmanned aerial vehicle units stationed in Brest. In response, Lithuania and Finland are constructing deeply echeloned defensive lines, while Poland is bolstering its air defenses and establishing a tank hub.
All European countries bordering Russia and Belarus have withdrawn from the Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel mines. According to the Wall Street Journal, a December 2025 war game organized by Die Welt simulated a Russian invasion of Lithuania in October 2026. During the NATO Hedgehog 2025 exercises in Estonia, a Ukrainian unit demonstrated success by defeating simulated British and Estonian battalions. Intelligence agencies from European NATO members report that Russia could be capable of attacking the alliance's eastern flank within 3 to 5 years.
The war in Ukraine has allowed the FSB security service clan to achieve several objectives, including sidelining rival power centers like the Russian military, dismantling democratic political institutions, nationalizing the economy, and militarizing all spheres of public life. Geographic positioning and historical narratives lead analysts to view the eastern Baltic Sea as a potential theater of war. Russian officials, such as Vladimir Medinsky, emphasize a readiness for a protracted conflict, noting that the Great Northern War lasted 21 years.
Sergei Lavrov has warned that any attack on the Russian Federation would trigger a full-scale military response.
Meanwhile, Maria Zakharova has expressed concern over rising nationalist sentiments in Western nations. Should a new major war begin, it could have severe regional consequences. For instance, the outbreak of a 'Second Northern War' could close the Brest-Malashevichi border crossing and halt the movement of tankers carrying Russian oil. The situation remains tense, requiring close attention from the international community.
The potential for a major Russia-Europe war in the Baltic reflects the complex geopolitical landscape in Europe, where rising NATO-Russia tensions are increasingly evident. An escalation could have far-reaching consequences not only for regional security but also for the global economy, particularly in the energy sector. It is crucial for the international community to remain vigilant and prepared to respond to potential threats to prevent a further deterioration of the situation.