In Ukraine, another rise in fuel prices is forecasted. The causes may be fluctuations in the exchange rate and the situation in the global oil market, rather than the cessation of supplies through the pipelines from Slovakia and Hungary. This is reported by the fuel market expert Dmytro Lyoshkin.
Lyoshkin stated that the currency is gradually being released, stimulating exports and reducing the budget deficit. At the same time, the situation with oil depends on events around Iran.
«Either this week or right after Ramadan. But the expectations of a military operation are creating fear in the market», – he explained.
Gasoline prices in Ukraine depend on exchange rates and oil
According to Lyoshkin, the Strait of Hormuz is a key artery of the global oil market, as about 20% of global supplies pass through it. In the event of a blockade or serious restrictions on tanker movements, the price of oil could rise to 100 dollars per barrel.
«It is hard to imagine how this will affect fuel prices in Ukraine», – noted the expert.
He added that wholesale prices have already increased by another 1 hryvnia, and prior to this, the market gradually added about 1 hryvnia. It is expected that these changes will reflect in retail prices within two weeks.
Price increase in fuel may be felt in retail in just two weeks
The expert emphasized that the retail segment traditionally reacts to changes in the wholesale market with a delay.
«All this will arrive in retail within two weeks. So far, no turnaround is visible, thus retail will follow the wholesale market like a thread behind a needle», – he concluded.
The head of the consulting group «A-95» Serhiy Kuyun previously reported that the wholesale price of gasoline has already increased by approximately 2 hryvnias per liter, and diesel shows a similar dynamic. Rising global oil quotes and a weakening hryvnia could exacerbate price pressures.
The main factors for a possible price increase:
- fluctuations in the dollar and euro exchange rate
- rising global oil prices
- risks of supply restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz
Earlier, Dmytro Lyoshkin also warned that after the air temperature rises above zero, gasoline and diesel prices could additionally increase by 1 hryvnia.