US Online Sales Expected to Hit New Highs in 2026 Holiday Season
Adobe forecasts a 6.7% increase in online retail sales across the United States during the 2026 holiday season, reaching an unprecedented $275.1 billion. This surge is largely attributed to the growing role of artificial intelligence, especially chatbots, which assist consumers in making purchasing decisions. According to recent surveys, 77% of shoppers who used AI while shopping online reported feeling more confident about their choices, while 69% indicated they returned fewer items when assisted by AI tools.
Chatbots Driving Smarter Shopping Experiences
Consumers in the US are expected to increasingly rely on AI-powered chatbots such as ChatGPT and Claude for gift selection, product comparisons, and finding deals. Adobe’s forecast is based on data from over one trillion visits to retail websites and suggests Cyber Monday could emerge as the biggest online shopping day ever, with spending surpassing $15 billion. Traffic from AI-driven platforms to US retail sites is projected to grow by 130%.
- AI-related site visits on Thanksgiving Day may jump by 159% compared to last year.
- Black Friday is predicted to see a 95% increase in AI-driven traffic.
- Cyber Monday could experience an 88% rise in such visits.
ChatGPT offers tailored recommendations based on individual budgets, while Google’s Gemini tracks price drops and notifies users when items are back in stock. Some AI systems even have the capability to complete purchases on behalf of shoppers.
However, not all retailers openly support third-party AI agents. For example, Amazon restricts the use of these assistants without explicit approval and blocked Meta Muse’s AI helper in September, which could make purchases autonomously. Vivek Pandya, an expert at Adobe, commented:
“Shoppers are becoming increasingly comfortable interacting with AI to receive recommendations and then visiting retailer websites directly from these conversations.” – Vivek Pandya, Adobe Expert
It’s important to note that Adobe’s projections do not include the impact of built-in AI assistants like Amazon’s Rufus or Walmart’s AI tools, which could influence overall market outcomes.
The anticipated growth in online sales in the 2026 holiday period, combined with widespread adoption of AI technologies, highlights a significant shift in consumer behavior toward tech-enhanced shopping. Chatbots are rapidly becoming essential tools that deliver personalized advice and simplify the buying process. This trend points to a future in which AI integration may become the norm in e-commerce. Meanwhile, restrictions on third-party AI agents, such as those enforced by Amazon, could shape competitive dynamics among retail platforms moving forward.
As the reliance on AI in online shopping grows, concerns about safety and standards are becoming more prominent. Recent statements from major financial institutions highlight potential risks associated with AI-driven purchasing. Understanding these challenges is crucial for consumers navigating the evolving landscape of digital retail. For insights into the warnings issued by leading banks regarding these risks, you can read more about safety standards in AI shopping.