Russia's Invasion Plans for Ukraine
As late as February 2022, the vast majority of Russia's political and business elite were unaware of the Kremlin's detailed plans to invade Ukraine. Only a handful of individuals within the system were briefed on the preparations for the full-scale aggression, and this occurred a mere two weeks before the attack began. For most senior figures, the true intentions remained hidden until just one week before the invasion was launched on February 24th. This level of secrecy is highly unusual for a major military operation, suggesting a deliberate effort to limit dissent and control the narrative from the outset.
The Russian Security Council Meeting
A meeting of the Russian Security Council was held on February 21, 2022, in the Kremlin's marble hall. The head of foreign intelligence at the time was Sergei Naryshkin. Crucially, this high-level gathering provided no clear signals about the imminent invasion, highlighting the limited awareness even among the highest echelons of power. This indicates that critical decisions were confined to an extremely small inner circle.
On the very day the war began, February 24th, Russian President Vladimir Putin was hosting Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan at the Kremlin. This visit had been scheduled months in advance, and Putin spent over two hours with Khan. According to U.S. intelligence assessments, Putin's true objectives extended far beyond the Donbas region, underscoring the complexity and scale of the Kremlin's plans, which were kept hidden from much of its own government.
“Don't worry. In a few weeks, it will all be over.”
Vladimir Putin
These facts point to a significant degree of secrecy and restricted information flow within the Russian power structure, which can have serious consequences for decision-making during a crisis. The elite's lack of foreknowledge likely impacted their ability to respond to unfolding events and also reveals internal divisions in understanding the Kremlin's foreign policy. Therefore, the invasion of Ukraine was not only an act of external aggression but also exposed deep systemic problems in Russia's governance, where key stakeholders were deliberately kept in the dark.