Analysis of Russian Federation Actions in 2025
According to the analysis, Russia's moves in 2025 are staged as a theatrical display first for U.S. President Donald Trump and later for Russian President Vladimir Putin himself. For the first time since the war began, the Russian regime has shifted from an active offensive posture to one of self-defense, concentrating its shelling on central Kyiv. The primary aim of these attacks is to trigger a psychological response from Putin to his own humiliation, while also catering to the demands of ultra-patriots and military personnel who are increasingly voicing discontent.
As one anonymous analyst noted: 'Everything happening now is part of the Russian plan to force negotiations.'
In this context, Putin recognizes that his position has come under criticism and intends to respond to this affront. One driver of these actions is the desire to appease ultra-patriots and a segment of the military, who are beginning to show signs of opposition. 'This is the logic of a theater for a single spectator,' the analyst emphasizes, pointing out that Putin's inner circle is now also putting on a show for him alone.
Massive Strikes and Domestic Politics
The decision has been made to carry out several waves of massive attacks, even though this will require months to rebuild resources afterward. No more than 3–4 such strikes are possible due to resource constraints. Last week, Putin called on Ukrainian soldiers to surrender, a sign of mounting pressure on the front lines. For the Kremlin, the ideal outcome of a missile operation would be a direct hit on the Ukrainian presidential administration building, which could serve as a catalyst for the U.S. and EU to pressure Ukraine into a new round of negotiations.
Currently, there is no rebellion within Russian elites, though dissatisfaction is growing over new arbitration rules that limit the number of untouchable individuals. Putin's logic is that granting immunity to 30 people from his inner circle, along with top FSB and FSO officials, shields him from potential coups. The situation in Ukraine is somewhat different: while an elite front is approaching, it does not yet exist. The West is not attempting to create a front within Russia's elites, instead focusing on Putin's permanence—a sign, analysts say, that there is little hope for rapid change.
This situation underscores the complex dynamics of political and military relations between Russia and Ukraine, as well as between Russia and the West. Seeking to maintain internal stability and control over his elites, Putin is compelled to resort to aggressive actions that could further escalate the conflict. Meanwhile, the West remains in a difficult position, trying to balance support for Ukraine with deterrence against Russia, which could shape future diplomatic efforts in the region.
As the situation evolves, it is crucial to consider the broader implications of these military actions on the ongoing conflict. Recent reports indicate a significant shift in territorial dynamics, with Ukraine experiencing notable territorial gains in 2026, which may further influence Russia's strategic decisions. Understanding these developments can provide valuable insights into the potential outcomes of the current geopolitical landscape.