Institute for the Study of War Issues New Assessment
A recent report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) claims that Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to capture the entirety of Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions before autumn 2026, even as Russian offensive operations slow down. According to information cited from the Financial Times on May 28, Russian forces have advanced an average of just 2.63 square kilometers per day in Donetsk Oblast since the start of 2026.
The report notes that between January 1 and May 26, Russian troops occupied 1,619 square kilometers of territory. In contrast, during the same period in 2026, that figure dropped sharply to only 104 square kilometers. Additionally, Russian units penetrated an extra 628 square kilometers of land but failed to consolidate control over those areas.
Military Realities and Assessments
The ISW believes that Russia's military leadership may be deliberately feeding Putin distorted information about frontline conditions, potentially skewing his evaluations and strategic plans. The report also references U.S. President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, though it does not elaborate on their specific roles in this context.
Thus, despite the Kremlin's ambitious goals for capturing Donetsk and Luhansk, the actual pace of Russian advances points to a deceleration of their offensive campaign.
The ISW report highlights the harsh realities of the military situation in Ukraine, where, despite the Kremlin's stated objectives, real-world battlefield gains suggest growing challenges for Russian forces. - Source: Institute for the Study of War
This slowdown in territorial gains may indicate mounting difficulties for the Russian military, which could influence the Kremlin's future decisions and war strategies. It also has potential implications for international politics and negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict.
The complexities surrounding Russia's military strategy in Ukraine raise important questions about its approach to the Donbas region. In a related context, Lavrov's recent statements shed light on why Russia is avoiding total devastation in Donbas, highlighting the Kremlin's calculated decisions as it navigates the challenges of the ongoing conflict.