Low Probability of a Major Offensive from Belarus
Serhiy Rakhmanin, a member of Ukraine’s parliament, considers a large-scale offensive from Belarus unlikely due to Minsk’s limited resources. He points out that the Belarusian military lacks the independent capacity to conduct active combat operations against Ukraine, with only three to four brigades considered combat-ready.
According to Rakhmanin,
“Belarus simply doesn’t have the resources for this. At most, they have three, maybe four brigades that can be considered combat-ready. And the total forces they could assemble are smaller than what came from the north toward Kyiv from Russia in 2022.”
Conditions Required for a Local Offensive
For a localized offensive to occur, both the Kremlin and Minsk would need to meet several conditions:
- announce and carry out a large-scale mobilization within Belarus itself;
- deploy significant additional mobilization reserves from the Russian Federation.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has stated that his country’s military personnel have not and will not take part in the war against Ukraine. However, he also noted that the situation could change if Belarus were attacked:
“The situation could change dramatically.”
At the same time, Rakhmanin reported the construction of a highway toward Ukraine, which could indicate an escalation of military activity. He emphasized that
“Certain things are already happening. Even in the public domain—they’re not just building a road for military logistics; they’re building a highway toward Ukraine.”
Additionally, the increased activity of sabotage and reconnaissance groups (SRGs) poses a potential threat in the near term. Specifically, Russian forces are conducting sabotage operations from the Bryansk region toward Chernihiv Oblast.
Rakhmanin also suggested that a freeze of the war along the current front line by the end of this year is theoretically possible. Head of the President’s Office Kyrylo Budanov believes that a scenario in which the active phase of hostilities ends by November is realistic. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has indicated there may be a ‘window of opportunity’ for progress in negotiations before winter. Thus, while the situation remains tense, the likelihood of an offensive from Belarus stays low.
Rakhmanin’s comments highlight the challenging military position Belarus finds itself in, as well as its limited capabilities in the context of active hostilities. At the same time, the construction of a highway toward Ukraine and the activity of sabotage groups suggest the situation could remain dynamic. This may influence Ukraine’s future strategic decisions, as well as international relations in the region, given the ongoing high tension between Ukraine and Belarus. Notably, forecasts of a potential conflict freeze could point to possible diplomatic efforts in the near future.
As the situation evolves, the potential for a shift in military engagement remains a topic of discussion. Recent insights suggest that while a large-scale offensive from Belarus is deemed unlikely, the dynamics of the conflict could change rapidly if certain conditions are met. To explore further the implications of these developments on the ongoing war, check out our detailed analysis of how the Ukraine conflict might reach a standstill by year-end here.