Russia Attacks Oil Plants: How This Threatens Sunflower Oil Exports from Ukraine
This article describes systematic attacks by Russia on Ukrainian oil extraction plants and ports, negatively impacting sunflower oil exports. Since December 2025, hostile strikes have started on Ukrainian oil extraction plants and sunflower oil storage facilities. These actions have led to a significant decrease in export volumes caused by the destruction of critical infrastructure.
In the 2024/2025 marketing year, 4.73 million tons of sunflower oil were exported from Ukraine, which is 24% less than in the previous season. The top three importers of Ukrainian sunflower oil last season include:
- India (767 thousand tons)
- Spain (656 thousand tons)
- Italy (504 thousand tons)
As of January 1, 2026, 1.4 million tons of sunflower oil have already been exported, leaving 2.7 million tons.
Chronology of Attacks
The chronology and reasons for the strikes show that:
- On December 22, 2025, Russians struck the 'Yuzhny' port near Odesa.
- The next day, on December 25, 2025, a strike occurred at the Illichivsk Oil and Fat Plant in the city of Chornomorsk.
- On January 5, 2026, the Russian Federation attacked the Dnipropetrovsk oil extraction plant, resulting in a spill of 300 tons of oil.
These strikes dealt a significant blow to Ukraine's export capabilities.
What will happen to exports? The Ministry of Economy's forecast suggests that in the 2025/2026 marketing year, sunflower seed production will be 10.1 million tons. Domestic consumption of sunflower oil is estimated to be 5.6-8% of the total production volume. Consequently, if attacks continue, this may lead to further reductions in export volumes.
Will prices for oil spike? State price regulation for sunflower oil was introduced on December 30, 2021. However, in the context of the current attacks and reduced export volumes, the market may experience a shock that could affect pricing policy. Given the situation, experts express concerns about the stability of the sunflower oil market in Ukraine amidst military actions.
Attacks on oil plants and ports in Ukraine continue to threaten not only economic stability but also the country's food security. Given the importance of sunflower oil exports for the Ukrainian economy, further escalation of military aggression could significantly complicate the market situation, impacting prices and product availability both in Ukraine and beyond. Experts and analysts are monitoring developments, seeking to assess the potential implications for international trade and Ukraine's agricultural sector.