Analyzing Russia's Potential Demands in Ukraine Talks
According to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia is preparing a set of demands for negotiations with Ukraine that extend far beyond territorial claims. A central condition is likely to be the international recognition of the territories it currently occupies. Furthermore, Moscow is expected to insist on:
- restrictions on Ukraine's defensive capabilities;
- a shift in its foreign policy orientation;
- a revision of the European security architecture.
Russian officials have stated that mere control over parts of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions would not satisfy them. The Kremlin also emphasizes the necessity of altering Ukraine's political course and establishing a government friendly to Russia. It rejects the idea of strong Western security guarantees for Ukraine, maintaining its intent to achieve its goals through both diplomatic and military means. These demands present a significant challenge to Ukraine's sovereignty and the post-Cold War European order.
The Next Round of Negotiations
The next round of trilateral talks in the Ukraine–USA–Russia format is scheduled for February 17–18, 2026, in Geneva, Switzerland. The Ukrainian negotiation team has already departed for Switzerland. The delegation will be represented by:
- Kyrylo Budanov,
- Sergiy Kyslytsya,
- David Arakhamia,
- Vadym Skibitsky.
The Russian delegation will consist of at least 15 people, led by Russian Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky. Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Mikhail Galuzin will also participate in the talks.
This round of negotiations represents a critical juncture in the complex process of settling the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The demands put forward by Russia could substantially influence the future trajectory of the talks and Ukraine's relationships with its Western partners. The importance of these discussions is heightened by the ongoing military actions and the shifting security landscape in Europe.