Mapping Vulnerabilities: Russian UAV Activity in European Skies
According to a study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, Russia has launched nearly 150 drone incursions into European airspace over a span of 19 months. These operations effectively mapped weaknesses in NATO's air defense systems. The research indicates that these unmanned aerial vehicles entered the airspace of more than a dozen Alliance member states, as well as Ireland. Despite the frequency of these events, allied nations failed to mount a coordinated response.
This campaign of drone launches exposed critical gaps in air defense capabilities, legal frameworks, and rules of engagement. Study co-author Charlie Edwards noted:
“When you look at these incidents together, a pattern becomes clear.”
Key Incidents and Policy Recommendations
Among the notable events recorded during this campaign, 24 drones breached Polish airspace in September 2025. That same month, drone activity forced a multi-hour shutdown of Copenhagen Airport.
In December 2025, Dutch fighter jets were scrambled to intercept drones near Volkel Air Base. Similar sightings occurred near the Île Longue nuclear submarine base in France, as well as around military installations in the United Kingdom, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands. In many instances, Russian commercial vessels—including shadow fleet tankers—were detected near the launch sites. Moscow has previously denied any involvement in these incidents.
The IISS report identifies four likely objectives behind the campaign:
- surveillance of NATO's nuclear capabilities,
- testing allied reaction times through reconnaissance by fire,
- mapping military logistics and supply routes,
- exerting economic and psychological pressure.
In light of these findings, the report urges NATO, the EU, and national governments to revise their rules of engagement and legal frameworks.
“Resilience alone is not enough,”Edwards emphasized, highlighting the pressing need for proactive countermeasures.
This situation underscores the urgent need to strengthen air defense systems across NATO countries, as the identified vulnerabilities could have far-reaching implications for European security. How allies respond to these incursions—and their willingness to adapt rules of engagement—may prove critical to maintaining regional stability amid growing threats from Russia.
These drone incursions have raised significant concerns within NATO, particularly regarding the possibility of Russian provocations aimed at the Baltic States or Poland. As tensions escalate, understanding the broader implications of these activities is essential for assessing regional security. To explore this issue further, read about NATO's warnings regarding potential threats in the region here.