Russia’s Warning to Armenia
Russia has threatened to revisit key agreements with Armenia covering natural gas, petroleum products, and rough diamonds, citing Yerevan’s growing alignment with the European Union. In a letter addressed to Armenia’s Ministry of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure, Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilyov warned that any concrete moves by Armenia to deepen ties with the EU could jeopardize the high level of cooperation long maintained between the two nations.
In 2013, Moscow permanently eliminated export duties on gas, oil products, and uncut diamonds shipped to Armenia. Armenia, which received roughly 2.7 billion cubic meters of gas from Gazprom in 2025, still relies heavily on Russian supplies at a preferential rate of $177 per thousand cubic meters. However, the country has begun diversifying its imports, now purchasing AI-95 gasoline from:
- Romania
- Bulgaria
- Egypt
- Azerbaijan (since late 2025)
Political Shifts and Trade Restrictions
In March 2025, Armenia’s parliament formally endorsed the country’s bid to join the EU, a move that has unsettled Moscow. Tsivilyov stated that Yerevan’s EU integration path contradicts the spirit of a partnership built over decades. Relations between Moscow and Yerevan have sharply deteriorated since Armenia began moving closer to Brussels.
Russia has also imposed trade restrictions on Armenia. Starting May 22, Russia’s agricultural watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor temporarily banned flower imports from Armenia. In April, Russian authorities prohibited the sale and import of the Armenian mineral water brand Jermuk. Additionally, operations at the Proshyan Brandy Factory have been curtailed. These measures illustrate Russia’s growing economic pressure on Armenia amid its European integration efforts.
The standoff between Russia and Armenia highlights the shifting geopolitical dynamics in the region, where once-close partners are now recalibrating their foreign policies in response to changing global alliances.
As Armenia pursues EU membership, it may face new challenges, with its traditional partner Russia taking steps to curb the process. Given Armenia’s reliance on Russian energy supplies and markets, these developments could have significant economic consequences for the country.
As Armenia navigates its complex relationship with both Russia and the EU, the upcoming elections will play a crucial role in shaping its peace efforts with Azerbaijan and future ties with Europe. The political landscape is shifting rapidly, and the outcomes could significantly influence Armenia's foreign policy direction amidst increasing pressure from Moscow.