Findings of the 2025 Munich Security Index
The 2025 Munich Security Index reveals a significant shift in threat perception among G7 nations. Russia has fallen from second to eighth place in the overall ranking of perceived risks for the G7 bloc. Its standing is even lower in North America, dropping to 15th place in both the United States and Canada. This annual survey, conducted in November 2025, polled roughly one thousand respondents in each G7 and BRICS country to gauge public opinion on global threats.
Shifting Perceptions of the Russian Threat
The survey details a broad downgrading of Russia's perceived threat level across Western Europe. In the United Kingdom, it fell from first to third place; in Germany, from second to fourth; and in France, from fourth to sixth. Italy ranks Russia even lower, while Japan's assessment of the threat from Russia remained unchanged. Within the BRICS nations, particularly China and India, Russia is perceived as a minimal threat, consistently appearing near the bottom of their threat lists.
Conversely, the United States is now viewed as a more serious threat by most other G7 countries than in previous years. The index also shows a sharp rise in the perceived significance of economic instability, cyberattacks, and disinformation, while environmental threats are now seen as less urgent.
Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service has stated that Russia does not intend to launch a military attack on any NATO state this year or next, though it plans to rebuild its armed forces. Estonian intelligence analysts also suggest these assessments are likely to remain unchanged next year.
Russia's decline in the security index highlights a major recalibration of threat perception among key Western nations, which could influence future geopolitical strategies and alliances. This shift comes as the perceived threat from the U.S., particularly regarding economic and informational challenges, grows within the G7. These evolving rankings reflect broader changes in the international security landscape, where traditional military risks are being reassessed alongside newer, hybrid threats.