Renewed Acquisition of Foreign Currency and Gold Reserves
For the first time since June 2024, Russia has resumed buying foreign currency and gold for its National Welfare Fund. This move comes amid rising global oil prices triggered by the conflict in the Middle East. In May 2025, the Russian Ministry of Finance plans to acquire assets worth 110 billion rubles—equivalent to roughly $1.5 billion—with this amount also covering deferred transactions from March and April.
As of May 1, 2025, the National Welfare Fund's available assets stood at 3.6 trillion rubles. This represents a 14% decline from January and a nearly 60% drop compared to pre-war levels. Russian authorities have also considered lowering the baseline oil price used in the budget rule, but have postponed that decision until autumn. Under the current fiscal framework, if the price of Russian crude exceeds $59 per barrel, surplus revenues are funneled into the National Welfare Fund; if prices fall below that threshold, reserves are tapped to cover budget shortfalls. In the first two months of 2026, Moscow spent around 419 billion rubles from the fund due to declining oil revenues.
Financial Stability and Emerging Risks
Moscow's primary objective remains ensuring financial stability and reducing the budget's dependence on oil income, according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. Meanwhile, experts like Katerina Vlasova project that the National Welfare Fund could grow by approximately $12 billion by year-end, offsetting the losses seen in the first quarter.
An additional risk for Russia is the potential exit of the United Arab Emirates from OPEC, which could destabilize the oil market. At the same time, Japan has resumed importing Russian crude oil, with a tanker already docking at Taiyo Oil's refinery in Imabari—a sign of Tokyo's efforts to diversify its supply sources.
Resuming purchases of foreign currency and gold for the National Welfare Fund may indicate Russia's attempt to bolster its financial reserves amid growing volatility in the oil market.
— Katerina Vlasova
Given forecasts of fund growth by the end of the year, this could help the state compensate for earlier losses. However, the budget's reliance on oil revenues remains a significant risk, especially in light of potential shifts in OPEC policy and market fluctuations.
As Russia navigates the complexities of its financial landscape, the recent decision to resume currency and gold purchases highlights the government's efforts to stabilize the economy amidst ongoing challenges. For a deeper understanding of the measures being taken to address the widening budget deficit, you can read more about how the country is utilizing its gold reserves to manage fiscal pressures here.