Analysis of Russia's Military Recovery
An article by military analyst Michael Kofman, published in Foreign Affairs, examines Russia's ability to rebuild its army following the war in Ukraine. Despite heavy losses, the size of Russia's armed forces has grown, and the country has ramped up drone production. However, persistent quality issues and economic constraints remain significant hurdles. NATO is advised to prepare for emerging threats.
Russia's military is now larger than it was before the conflict began. The active force has expanded from 850,000 personnel to 1.3 million. Yet, over four years of full-scale war, Russia has suffered at least 400,000 killed and between 600,000 and 800,000 wounded. These staggering human casualties have a direct impact on overall combat effectiveness.
Equipment Production and Quality Challenges
Equipment losses have also been severe. As of early May 2026, Russia had lost over 14,000 armored vehicles and 2,100 artillery systems. Despite these setbacks, the country continues to boost production of new hardware. Annual output of the latest T-90M tanks exceeds 200 units, and Russia launches an average of 6,500 attack drones into Ukraine each month. In 2025, Russia manufactured over 70,000 unmanned systems, and contracts for at least 100,000 drones have been signed for 2026. Drone production in Russia surged by 117% in a single year.
Quality problems within the military persist. New contract soldiers often receive no more than two weeks of training, raising concerns about their combat readiness. Russia's unemployment rate stands at 2.2%, which may indicate a pool of available recruits, but the quality of personnel training remains troubling.
Economic constraints also play a key role. In 2026, Russia's military spending is set to reach $180 billion, which, when adjusted for purchasing power parity, amounts to $400–500 billion. For the first time, military expenditures accounted for over 46% of Russia's budget in the first quarter of 2026. This reflects a massive investment in the armed forces, though in a tense international climate, it could lead to further economic strain.
All these factors suggest that Russia could rebuild its military to a level that poses a threat to NATO within 5 to 7 years after hostilities end. Consequently, NATO is urged to prepare for new dangers, keeping in mind that Russia is actively expanding its military capabilities despite losses and economic challenges.
The situation analysis shows that, despite significant losses, Russia continues to invest in its army and increase the size of its armed forces. This could have serious implications for European security, as NATO must be ready for new challenges from Russia.
Michael Kofman
Given the ongoing instability and economic difficulties the country faces, it is crucial to monitor Russia's next moves in the military sphere, as the strategic situation in the region depends on them.
As Russia continues to rebuild its military capabilities, understanding the shifting dynamics of the conflict is crucial. Insights from analysts reveal how the vastness of Russia could become a liability, impacting its strategic approach in the coming years. To explore these evolving challenges and their implications for NATO, read more about the nuances of the conflict in this article on Russia's vulnerabilities in the current war landscape.