Shifts in Russian Public Sentiment
In a column for Carnegie Politika, Alexander Baunov examines how Russian society is undergoing profound changes, including a decline in President Vladimir Putin’s authority, evolving economic conditions, and a shifting perception of the war. He notes that everyday patriotism—once rooted in economic survival—is fading, and a growing recognition that victory in the conflict is unattainable is taking hold.
Symbols of Change
Moscow’s recent Victory Day parade, notably held without heavy military equipment, has become a powerful symbol of this transformation. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged that officials are aware of a public appeal by model Victoria Bonya urging change. Meanwhile, Sergei Novikov, a deputy of Sergei Kiriyenko, stated that banning things in Russia is no longer feasible, echoing Putin’s own call to avoid fixating on prohibitions. Baunov argues that Putin is no longer seen as a 'superman guarding ordinary people’s interests; he now fears drones and the internet more than the average citizen does.'
Economic shifts are also underway. On April 15, Putin chaired a meeting on economic policy where a decision was made to raise VAT from 20% to 22%. Official inflation has dropped to 5.6%, and it is now mandatory to include a taxpayer identification number (TIN) in transfers via the fast payment system. Additionally, Russia has introduced a state-run messenger app called MAH, which Baunov describes as an 'internal SMO' (Special Military Operation).
In his analysis, Baunov portrays Putin as a 'fussy old man on thin legs with sagging muscles,' highlighting his growing vulnerability. Military parades and displays, once seen as symbols of strength, are now compared to a 'collection of 1:42 scale models.' The author emphasizes that Ukraine is the true driver behind these shifts in public mood, while government economists have learned what it means to be a Russian general.
These changes in Russia reflect not only internal struggles but also external pressures, such as Ukrainian strikes on oil facilities stretching from Ust-Luga to Tuapse. Society is gradually coming to terms with new realities that could significantly shape the country’s future trajectory.
The situation Baunov describes points to deep socio-economic transformations that may have lasting consequences for political stability. Declining support for Putin and a growing public awareness of the challenges Russia faces could act as catalysts for further societal shifts. External factors, particularly the war in Ukraine, continue to influence domestic sentiment, underscoring how foreign policy impacts internal dynamics.
As public sentiment continues to shift, the increasing weariness among Russians regarding the ongoing conflict raises questions about the Kremlin's stability. This growing discontent and despair could potentially pressure Putin into reconsidering his stance on the war, further complicating the political landscape in Russia.