Inside Russia’s Elite and Intelligence Services
In an interview with Kateryna Kotrikadze, investigative journalist Christo Grozev delivered a detailed breakdown of how Russia’s ruling class and security agencies view the war in Ukraine. Grozev stated that the Russian elite is deeply fractured, and the war’s daily price tag—roughly $300 million—is threatening the country’s economic stability. He noted that Russian intelligence services believe the war is unsustainable for Russia, while President Vladimir Putin grows increasingly anxious about the potential for revolutionary unrest if the conflict ends.
Key Risks and Turning Points
Among the key revelations was an attempt to sell the idea of ending the war to Donald Trump and his family through Kirill Dmitriev, though a final deal was never reached. Grozev also highlighted a major risk: the return of 500,000 armed soldiers from the front lines could trigger a revolution. Kremlin political strategists have warned that ending the war would likely spark mass unrest.
“He receives forecasts from political strategists that if the war ends, a revolution will begin. This isn’t his own speculation—it’s what the Kremlin’s political technologists are telling him.” — Christo Grozev
During the conflict, military personnel have been earning over $3,000 per month, while civilian salaries average just $300–400. This disparity is fueling social tension among the population. Grozev also emphasized that mobilization in Russia is highly probable, and it would trigger massive public protests.
“Without mobilization, given the current state of the economy, continuing the war is impossible. So mobilization is very likely.” — Christo Grozev
Among the Russian elite figures who support prolonging the war are:
- Zolotov
- General Alexeyev
- Bokarev
Meanwhile, Chemezov—under pressure from his wife and son—has shifted to the anti-war camp and controls significant FSB resources, giving him the capability to stage a coup. Grozev stressed Chemezov’s pivotal role, stating, “If he decides to organize a coup, he will succeed.”
In addition, Patrushev is overseeing a shadow fleet project and a network of ports designed to disguise oil as Libyan crude. Gazprom operates four private military companies that could also influence the situation. At the current pace, the war could drag on for another 15–20 years unless there are major shifts in Russia’s political direction.
Grozev’s analysis points to serious internal fractures within Russia’s elite that could alter the course of the war in Ukraine. Growing social unrest driven by wage inequality and the looming threat of mobilization may further destabilize Putin’s regime. With the economy under mounting strain, the decisions made by Russia’s ruling class could prove critical—not just for the war, but for the very future of the Russian state.
As the situation evolves, the Kremlin's strategies appear to be shaped by a looming awareness of the war's potential longevity, echoing sentiments expressed by insiders. For a deeper understanding of how Russian leadership is bracing for a conflict that may endure for decades, read more in this insightful piece on the strategic outlook from a Rosneft advisor regarding Russia's military ambitions.