Pre-Invasion Diplomacy by France and Germany
An investigation by The Guardian details the diplomatic efforts made by France and Germany in the lead-up to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While London and Washington warned of a likely invasion, Paris and Berlin considered it improbable and sought to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin through dialogue. This divergence highlights the deep-seated disagreements within the Western alliance regarding how to interpret Putin's intentions.
Last-Minute Talks and Their Outcome
In February 2022, just before the war began, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz traveled to Moscow. Macron held six hours of talks with Putin, receiving assurances from the Russian leader that he would not escalate the situation. However, the threat of a crisis had been discussed as early as December 2021, when senior Ukrainian officials urged allies not to dismiss the possibility of an invasion, stating: 'don't listen, it's all nonsense.'
The French ambassador to Kyiv, Étienne de Ponsen, learned of the invasion's start by hearing the sound of Russian missiles. He noted that despite having the same intelligence about troops on the border, the analysis differed:
"we diverged in our analysis of what was in Putin's head"- Étienne de Ponsen. An assessment of the combat potential of the force that invaded Ukraine confirmed that Russia's strength was insufficient to sustain a long-term occupation.
These diplomatic efforts and their results illustrate the complex challenges European nations faced in trying to prevent the conflict's escalation. As one European foreign minister remarked, referencing past lessons:
"I am old enough to remember 2003. I was among those who believed you then."
The events underscore the critical role of diplomacy in international relations, especially in conflicts threatening regional security. The failure of France and Germany to prevent the invasion raises serious questions about the efficacy of negotiations when dealing with aggressive states. This experience is likely to shape future European approaches to foreign policy and security, particularly concerning relations with Russia and other potential aggressors.