How Warnings of War Were Missed Before Russia's Invasion
This article details the intelligence activities of the United States and the United Kingdom in the lead-up to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Despite CIA Director William Burns warning Vladimir Putin of the consequences as early as November 2021, the intelligence gathered faced significant skepticism from European allies and Ukrainian leadership, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The piece chronicles key events, meetings, and intelligence assessments from November 2021 through February 2022, revealing a critical failure in threat perception. The invasion's launch became a pivotal moment in modern European security, challenging long-held assumptions about deterrence and intelligence sharing.
Key Intelligence Events and Assessments
In November 2021, US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines presented threat assessments of a potential invasion to NATO intelligence chiefs in Brussels. Late that October, the CIA and MI6 had sent alarming memoranda to Kyiv. By December 2021, the US and UK had a clear picture of Putin's plans, including intentions to seize Hostomel Airport and target President Zelenskyy. In January 2022, American intelligence obtained even more detailed invasion plans, which outlined goals to capture Kyiv and intern or eliminate 'problematic' figures.
Despite these alarming intelligence reports, Ukrainian leadership, including President Zelenskyy, remained publicly skeptical. In a video address on January 18, 2022, Zelenskyy assured the nation a major war would not occur. On January 22, 2022, the UK Foreign Office published a statement alleging Russian plans to install Yevgeny Murayev as Ukraine's prime minister. During his last phone call with Putin on February 12, 2022, US President Joe Biden expressed concern over the troop buildup, but the Russian leader insisted the matter would be resolved within weeks.
In early February 2022, the embassies of the US, UK, and other nations began evacuating Kyiv. On February 21, 2022, Putin held a meeting of the Russian Security Council to discuss recognizing the so-called 'L/DPR'. A state of emergency, not martial law, was declared in Ukraine on February 22. The next day, February 23, Zelenskyy met with the presidents of Poland and Lithuania in Kyiv, and the head of Germany's BND, Bruno Kahl, arrived in the capital. On the day of the invasion, February 24, 2022, at 4:50 AM Kyiv time, Putin announced the start of a 'special military operation'.
US and British intelligence, despite possessing data on Russia's likely actions, encountered disbelief from European allies and Ukrainian officials. This led to the invasion shocking many, highlighting serious flaws in assessing the probability of aggression, even with detailed knowledge of the Kremlin's plans.
This case underscores the critical importance of trust in intelligence data and its interpretation by political leaders. The neglect or underestimation of threats can lead to catastrophic consequences, as witnessed in Ukraine.
Studying these failures can be instructive for future crises and for ensuring better preparedness for potential military conflicts. The episode serves as a stark lesson on the gap between possessing intelligence and acting decisively upon it.