How Tehran may react: assessments by U.S. intelligence
American intelligence agencies are currently actively studying how Iran might respond to Donald Trump's declaration of victory in the war. Several scenarios are being worked out in the U.S. capital, including the possibility that Washington will reduce its participation in combat operations. One of the considered models suggests that Trump will declare victory but will not completely withdraw troops from the region. A final decision has not yet been made.
The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz adds additional complexity to the situation — about one-fifth of all oil in the world is transported through it. Due to the actions of the Iranian side, shipping in this area has already been partially disrupted. The U.S. has two paths: either reduce tensions or increase military presence. Large-scale operations, such as a full-scale invasion, are currently unlikely. Rather, we might be talking about targeted strikes or similar limited measures.
American opinion and possible steps
Polls show that only one in four American citizens believes this war is justified, and about the same number are confident that it has increased the country's security. Meanwhile, Iran is using the lull to restore its military potential: equipment and weapons that were hidden after the initial strikes by the U.S. and its allies are returning to positions.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned: 'If negotiations with Tehran do not yield results, Washington may intensify sanctions pressure on Iran.'
The situation remains extremely tense. Any further steps by the parties could radically change the course of the conflict.
For the Russian audience, it is important to understand that the situation around the Strait of Hormuz directly affects global energy prices. Moreover, U.S. actions in this region could impact not only the security of the Middle East but also the stability of the global economy. Therefore, Tehran's response and Washington's decisions should be monitored particularly closely.
In the context of rising tensions in the region, it is important to consider Tehran's demands, which insists on sole control of the Strait of Hormuz. This circumstance may significantly influence the further actions of the U.S. and their strategy in response to possible steps by Iran. An escalation of the conflict in this key area could lead to serious consequences for the global economy and the security of energy supplies.