On February 22, the European Commission made a very strong statement: «Agreement is agreement» (A deal is a deal). This is a reaction to Trump's frantic actions after his defeat in the Supreme Court on February 20.
Last summer in Scotland, Ursula von der Leyen and Trump signed an agreement that set the EU's tariff ceiling at 15% (instead of the 30% promised by Trump). In exchange, the EU eliminated tariffs on a number of American goods and agricultural products.
But the situation changed when the US Supreme Court recognized Trump's old tariffs as illegal. In response, he immediately (on Saturday) signed an order to implement new temporary 15% tariffs on imports from all countries.
Brussels fears that Trump will add new 15% to the already existing 15% under the agreement, turning them into 30%. Or, worse still, he will cancel the «zero exceptions» for the aviation industry (Airbus) and pharmaceuticals.
Europe today is a collective «Benesh» trying to keep Trump in check with legal formulations. The phrase «a deal is a deal» is a cry of despair from the old bureaucratic world confronted with a developer president. Trump does not see «agreements», he sees «current market conditions».
The Last Argument of Kings, or «The EU's Trade Cannon»
Brussels is not just shaking its finger. The European Commission has the Anti-Coercion Instrument in its hands. This is a «trade cannon» that allows:
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To freeze US investments in the EU.
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To exclude American companies from public procurement.
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To impose retaliatory tariffs on «sensitive» goods (hello to Harley-Davidson motorcycles and bourbon from states that vote for Trump).
Why is Brussels so bold?
Because they see that Trump is busy with China. Trump needs to close the «Ukrainian case» and negotiate with Xi by the end of March. If he gets embroiled in a full-blown trade war with the EU as well, his 45% of independent voters will see 10-12% inflation in the nearest supermarket. This is suicide before the midterm elections.
Trump will likely back down on the EU. His trade representative, Jamieson Greer, has already begun to «give ground», stating on February 22 that the US would abide by deals made in the last 9 months. This is a good sign for Ukraine: Trump is forced to be pragmatic.
Europe, for the first time in a long while, has shown its teeth, reminding Trump that his «timer» works both ways. «A verbal agreement is worth more than money» is not about morality, it's about Trump's fear of losing control over inflation ahead of a meeting with Xi Jinping.