Russia's Demographic Outlook
Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service reports a worsening demographic situation in the Russian Federation, highlighting trends of population aging, gender imbalance, and the impact of the war against Ukraine on key indicators. According to their analysis, the proportion of young people in Russia is set to decline significantly in the coming years. These projections highlight a long-term structural challenge for the Russian state, extending far beyond the immediate consequences of the conflict.
The share of Russia's population aged 0 to 35 has already fallen from 55% in 1990 to 40% in 2025. The rate of decline for this age group has notably accelerated since 2020. Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service forecasts that by 2040, the proportion of Russians under 35 could drop to just 30%. As of early 2026, Russia's total population is estimated at approximately 143.5 million. In contrast, Russia's own statistical agency, Rosstat, published a forecast in October 2025 predicting the population will shrink to 138.77 million by the end of 2045.
Challenges Posed by Demographic Trends
The data clearly shows a persistent trend of demographic aging in Russia. If current trends continue, the country risks transitioning into a model of an 'aged society,' a characteristic of nations with the most depleted demographics. Key factors driving this development include:
- Massive losses among men of conscription and working age,
- A rise in disability rates,
- Emigration and a demographic 'pit' from low birth rates in past decades.
Consequently, Russia's demographic trajectory points to serious challenges that could affect the country's socio-economic stability for decades to come.
These demographic shifts could have profound implications for the Russian Federation, both socially and economically. A shrinking youth cohort may lead to labor shortages, reduced consumer spending, and increased pressure on social services, necessitating higher spending on healthcare and pensions. Amidst ongoing challenges, including war, these factors could become critical for the nation's stability, potentially constraining its long-term economic and military potential.