In October 2025, the dollar in Ukraine confidently went up and seems not to stop. According to analysts, in November, the American currency will maintain an upward trend amid seasonal demand, budget expectations, and discussions with the IMF. On October 1, the rate was 41.14 UAH, and by the end of the month, it was already 41.97 UAH. This is reported by RBK-Ukraine.
Why the Dollar is Rising
Financial analyst Andrii Shevchishin describes the rise in the exchange rate as a "controlled devaluation" of the hryvnia. According to him, the NBU still has sufficient reserves but limits interventions to avoid excessive pressure on the currency. The regulator intervenes only when the market gets too nervous:
"There will come a moment when the NBU will say stop, as it is already transitioning into panic, and the devaluation is very fast," the expert explains.
An additional factor is the seasonal demand from importers and the discussion between the NBU and the IMF regarding exchange rate policy. Meanwhile, Taras Lesovyi, the director of the financial markets department of "Globus Bank," assures that the situation is under control: "The NBU has plenty of grounds to keep the situation under control."
Forecast for November
According to Lesovyi's estimates, the currency market will remain tense. Expectations are influenced by macro plans for 2026, inflation background, and risks for the energy system.
Projected ranges:
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dollar: 41.8–42.5 UAH
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euro: 48.5–50 UAH
Analysts do not expect jumps – the exchange rate may move in waves: periods of growth will alternate with temporary stabilization.
Experts urge Ukrainians not to panic and avoid impulsive actions. "The best approach now is to calmly plan expenses and avoid emotional actions," emphasizes Lesovyi.
Since autumn 2023, Ukraine has been operating in a mode of controlled flexibility of the exchange rate. The cost of the dollar is determined on the interbank market, and the NBU smoothes out sharp changes. The highest rate in 2025 was recorded in January – 42.28 UAH. Traditionally, in autumn, the demand for currency exceeds supply by 10–15%.