Debating the 'Middle Powers' Alliance Concept
In a Geopolitical Futures podcast, George Friedman critically examined the idea of a 'middle powers' alliance, a concept proposed by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Friedman's analysis dissects the economic and security dimensions of U.S.-Canada relations and the broader geopolitical landscape, questioning the proposal's viability.
Carney's Davos address was hailed as one of the century's most significant geopolitical speeches. He argued that
"the old world order is not coming back"and that we have entered an era of great power rivalry where middle-sized nations should unite to counter hard power dominance. However, Friedman, the founder of Geopolitical Futures, contends this idea is
"irrational"and
"impossible", despite sounding
"wonderful". This debate highlights the tension between aspirational diplomacy and the hard realities of power and dependency.
Canada's Economic Reliance on the United States
Friedman underscores Canada's deep economic dependence on the U.S., noting that roughly 75% of Canadian exports go to its southern neighbor, compared to only about 15% to China. He warns that
"there is nothing more dangerous than being rich and weak,"implying that wealthy but less powerful nations are vulnerable. Friedman further states that
"great powers are great because they can exert enormous influence and punish those who break with them."
Nations often cited as potential 'middle powers' include:
- Canada
- Australia
- Japan
- Great Britain
- a significant part of the EU
- India
- Germany
- South Korea
- Russia
Friedman insists, however, that
"the numbers don't add up,"arguing that smaller states cannot effectively unite because they remain dependent on major powers for both security and economic stability.
Additionally, Friedman assesses the current international scene, referencing recent U.S. foreign policy actions involving Ukraine, Russia, Greenland, operations concerning illegal migrants, Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela. He advises that
"it is very important not to pay attention to the words of politicians, because they are politicians, but to look at reality."
Examining the Canada-U.S. relationship specifically, Friedman describes it as
"too close and absolutely unbreakable,"likening it to a marriage where divorce is impossible due to profound interdependence. He believes Canada cannot leave NORAD, and that
"it would be a disaster"if the U.S. could expel Canada from this military alliance.
In conclusion, Friedman observes that the world stands at the threshold of a new reality where great powers continue to set the international agenda, and attempts by smaller states to band together against this dynamic are likely futile.
George Friedman's discussion emphasizes the complexity of the modern geopolitical situation, where small and medium-sized states struggle to find their place in a world dominated by major players. While the idea of a 'middle powers' alliance holds a certain appeal, Friedman's analysis suggests that economic and military reliance on great powers fundamentally hinders its implementation. This casts serious doubt on the feasibility of coordinated action among nations with limited resources and influence.