RUSI Analysis Ahead of War Anniversary: US Losing Leverage Over Russia
In a commentary marking five years since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, RUSI analyst Dr. Jack Watling argues that the United States is losing its ability to influence Russia. This shift in the geopolitical landscape is occurring as the conflict enters a critical phase. Watling points to the cessation of significant US military aid to Kyiv as a primary factor, which is undermining support for Ukraine.
The analysis further notes that the US is hindering European purchases of American weaponry through the PURL mechanism, limiting the ability of European nations to equip their own armies. Additionally, the White House has signaled its intention to avoid applying any serious pressure on the Kremlin, raising questions about the effectiveness of current US policy towards Russia.
“The durability of any subsequent peace is doubtful”
Jack Watling, RUSI
Watling observes that with diminishing military support and diplomatic pressure, the situation in Ukraine remains tense, and US influence over Russia continues to wane.
The loss of US leverage could have serious consequences for the trajectory of the conflict. Reduced aid and pressure on Russia jeopardizes regional stability at a time when international backing for Ukraine is more crucial than ever. Monitoring shifts in US foreign policy and its capacity to coordinate with European allies will be key to understanding the future contours of the conflict and any potential for a negotiated settlement.