Challenges of the global economy in 2025
The global economy in 2025 faces serious challenges such as trade conflicts and rising inflation. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts a slowdown in global growth from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026. Amid rising tariff tensions, US President Donald Trump has imposed new tariffs, leading to significant market fluctuations.
The average US tariff has increased from 2.5% to 17.9% since Trump's return to office in January. This spike in tariffs is the highest level since 1934. The US Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs in 2026, which could impact the further development of the economic situation.
Forecasts for the US and China's economies
The tariff tension between the US and China continues to persist. Meanwhile, China's economy is projected to grow by approximately 5% in 2026. However, as expert Rajiv Biswas notes,
“The trade deal between the US and China is more like a ceasefire than a long-term peace agreement” - Rajiv Biswas.
On the other hand, Germany forecasts growth of 1.3% in 2026, although the ifo Institute has downgraded this forecast to 0.8%. Politicians promise to address the issue, but according to Neil Shearing, the imbalance will remain a defining feature of China’s economy in 2026.
Overall, the global economy faces numerous challenges such as:
- trade imbalance between China and the rest of the world;
- rising inflation;
- increasing public debt.
Expert Alicia Garcia-Herrero emphasizes that the revolution in artificial intelligence is structural, which may also impact economic processes in the future.
These events indicate that the global economy is experiencing a period of instability, particularly due to trade wars and shifts in the policies of major powers. The decisions made in the coming years could significantly affect the global economic landscape, shaping the development direction not only for the US and China, but also for other countries. Monitoring these processes will be key to understanding future economic trends.