How Technology Is Reshaping Modern Warfare
In his farewell essay, the defense editor of The Economist examines a technological trend that is redefining conflicts in Ukraine and against Iran. The most significant shift in recent years is the new 'transparency' of the battlefield, driven by improved sensors, precision-guided munitions, and networked systems. Rather than enabling swift victories, this transparency often leads to deadlocks in combat, as technology does not always deliver the expected results.
A 'belt of attrition' has formed in Ukraine—initially just 5 kilometers deep, it now frequently extends to 30 kilometers. This expansion highlights how both sides are heavily leveraging new technologies. Each day, thousands of FPV drones are produced by both armies, dramatically altering battlefield tactics. According to The Economist, between 1.1 and 1.4 million Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the war in Ukraine, while Ukrainian losses remain lower.
Precision Under Pressure: The Tech Paradox
These technological shifts have also degraded the accuracy of American precision weapons. The hit rate for Excalibur artillery shells plummeted from 70% to just 6% within months due to Russian electronic warfare. Meanwhile, the altitude of 4,000 meters has become 'air shallows,' where cheap, mass-produced drones now dominate the battlefield.
In the U.S. operation 'Epic Fury,' 13,000 targets were struck in Iran. Yet, according to American intelligence, Tehran retained 75% of its pre-war launchers and 70% of its cruise and ballistic missiles.
“Large-scale maneuver warfare is now unattainable,” says Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and now Ukraine’s ambassador to London.
Columbia University professor Stephen Biddle also warns that “the scale of the ‘sensor revolution’ is easy to exaggerate.”
In modern conflicts like the war in Ukraine and operations in Iran, technology plays an ever-growing role, transforming the very nature of warfare. The U.S. Maven system, combined with language models, can generate up to 5,000 targeting recommendations per day—showcasing both new opportunities and challenges for 21st-century military strategy.
These technological changes carry profound implications for military strategies, tactical decisions, and the overall dynamics of conflict. As the experiences in Ukraine and Iran demonstrate, cutting-edge technologies offer certain advantages but also inject uncertainty onto the battlefield. The transparency and control provided by modern sensors can prolong combat, demanding fresh approaches to planning and resource management. These trends suggest that 21st-century warfare will require constant adaptation to new realities, where technology increasingly determines the outcomes of military engagements.
As the conflict in Ukraine evolves, the impact of naval capabilities cannot be overlooked. Despite lacking a traditional navy, Ukraine has managed to significantly weaken Russia's maritime power, achieving a notable reduction of 30% in the Black Sea Fleet. This strategic shift underscores the importance of innovative tactics in modern warfare, further illustrating how technology and creativity can reshape the battlefield dynamics. To delve deeper into this unexpected development, explore our detailed analysis on Ukraine's naval strategy.