How Ukraine's Deep Strikes Are Reshaping Russia's Economy
British magazine The Economist has developed a model to gauge the true extent of Ukraine's long-range military campaign against targets deep within Russian territory. After analyzing data on 1,289 strikes hitting locations at least 100 kilometers from the border, the publication found these attacks are inflicting serious damage on Russia's economy—particularly its oil refining sector—and significantly cutting into its export revenues. This analysis comes amid ongoing international focus on the effectiveness of Ukraine's strategic operations.
From 2022 through the end of 2024, Ukrainian forces carried out 335 such strikes. In 2025 alone, that number jumped to 658. Projections suggest the pace could exceed 800 strikes in 2026. The Economist's model also revealed that the actual number of strikes in 2025 was roughly three times higher than what was recorded by the monitoring group ACLED. For instance, on June 3, a column of black smoke rose over the port of Saint Petersburg—despite the city being located about 800 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
The Economic Toll on Russia
A key example is Tuapse, Russia's largest oil refinery on the Black Sea, which has suffered major losses. Since the first quarter of 2024, bank lending to oil companies for refinery operations has surged by $22 billion, with annual credit growth for the sector reaching 26%. In comparison, the average lending growth rate for the rest of the civilian economy stands at 12%. This spring, production at Russian refineries was 15% lower than a year earlier.
Additionally, in the second half of 2025, Russia's export revenues came in $18 billion below expectations—a shortfall of 12% from projected figures. Over the first four months of 2026, export revenues were 34% lower than anticipated. These numbers indicate that Ukraine's deep strikes inside Russia have not only become more frequent over the past year but are also causing severe economic pain.
The tactic of repeatedly hitting the same targets makes quick repairs and recovery difficult, leading to prolonged economic consequences. A regional governor described these attacks as unprecedented, highlighting their impact on the area. Whether Ukraine can maintain this pace and continue the campaign remains a question requiring further analysis. The new Flamingo cruise missile, with a reported range of 3,000 kilometers, could become a key element in this strategy.
Assessments of Ukraine's strike effectiveness show a substantial impact on Russia's economy, particularly its strategic oil refining infrastructure. Declining export revenues and rising lending to oil companies point to serious challenges for the country's economic stability. Amid a prolonged conflict and sustained attacks, Russia's economy may face significant hurdles, demanding new response strategies from its government.
As the situation escalates, it's important to note how Russian companies are adapting to the ongoing threat, including gaining permission to acquire their own air defense systems in response to drone strikes. This move reflects a broader trend of increased military preparedness within Russia, potentially impacting the effectiveness of Ukraine's deep strikes and the overall economic landscape.