According to data from the European Commission, the full-scale war of Russia against Ukraine will end in late 2026. This information is contained in a letter from the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen to the leaders of the European Union countries dated November 17.
The letter notes that while forming support options for Ukraine for 2026-2027, the European Commission is working under the assumption of the conflict's end. However, even in this scenario, Ukraine's resource deficiency will remain critical.
'The scale of Ukraine's funding deficit is significant. According to preliminary IMF forecasts - provided that the war ends by late 2026 and taking into account all the aid that has already been promised by the EU, member states, and international partners - Ukraine will still face a huge shortfall that cannot be overcome without attracting new funding,' von der Leyen noted.
In October 2025, the European Council committed to addressing Ukraine's financial needs for the next two years, including the defense sector.
Key Requirements for Financial Support to Ukraine
The President of the European Commission identified four main requirements for the future financial package for Ukraine:
- funding must be available quickly, starting from the second quarter of 2026;
- the new package should not increase fiscal pressure on Ukraine;
- support should be flexible to respond to uncertainties regarding needs in 2026-2027;
- the distribution of the financial burden between the EU and partners should be fair.
It is also worth noting that the Presidents of Ukraine and France signed a declaration on future cooperation, which promises significant support for Ukraine.
The European Commission anticipates that Russia's war against Ukraine will end in late 2026, but even after that, Ukraine may face a significant funding shortfall. The President of the European Commission outlined key requirements for a new financial package for Ukraine, including the speed of fund disbursement, no increase in fiscal pressure, and a fair distribution of the financial burden between the EU and other partners.