New Approach to Gauging Public Sentiment
In May, the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) altered its methodology for measuring public sentiment by supplementing standard telephone polls with in-person, door-to-door visits. This methodological change coincided with an uptick in Vladimir Putin's approval and trust ratings. Analysts suggest the revised survey format is an attempt to mask a genuine decline in popularity driven by war fatigue and economic strain among the population.
Survey Results
The study was conducted from May 4 to May 10. Results show 66.8% of respondents approve of Putin's performance as president, a rise of 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous poll carried out from April 13 to April 19. Trust in Putin stands at 72.1%, also up by 1.1 percentage points from earlier data. Negative assessments have decreased: 22.9% of respondents disapprove of his work (down 0.4 percentage points), and 23.6% express distrust (down 0.5 percentage points).
Prior months had revealed a steady erosion of approval for Russian authorities, linked to war weariness, inflation, price hikes, mobile internet disruptions, and the blocking of Telegram. Putin's trust and approval ratings had dropped to their lowest levels since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. This negative trend had persisted for six weeks, indicating a stable pattern of growing disillusionment among Russians. Even Kremlin-friendly polling agencies began recording a significant decline in trust toward Putin.
Representatives of the Russian Public Opinion Research Center noted that 'a telephone survey alone no longer provides the full picture needed for quality electoral forecasting.'
This statement highlights challenges sociologists face due to the widespread use of anti-spam systems by mobile operators, a surge in phone scams, and general public distrust of calls from unknown numbers, especially among retirees.
The shift in VTsIOM's polling methodology may reflect attempts by Russian authorities to adapt to new realities, particularly the declining trust among the populace. Amid economic instability and social issues, such measures could be aimed at crafting a more optimistic image of the state and its leadership. However, the results of these polls should always be viewed critically, considering potential data manipulation and changes in information-gathering techniques.
As public sentiment continues to shift, recent findings indicate a concerning trend for the Kremlin, with Vladimir Putin's approval ratings reaching their lowest levels since 2022. This decline has prompted analysts to scrutinize the methodologies employed by polling agencies. For a deeper understanding of how these changes reflect the evolving political landscape in Russia, you can explore the insights from a recent VTsIOM poll that highlights the challenges facing the government amid growing public discontent.