Ukraine’s Metal Exports in 2026
In 2026, Ukraine generated $1.7 billion from metal exports—a 7% drop from the previous year and 3.2 times less than before the full-scale invasion began. Over more than four years of war, cumulative revenue from metal exports has reached $18.4 billion. The best wartime year was 2025, when metal sales brought in $4.7 billion.
During the first five months of 2026, monthly export earnings nearly matched the peak levels seen in 2021, when revenue hit roughly $1.3 billion per month just before the invasion. However, metals’ share of Ukraine’s total exports fell to just 7% in 2026. For context, in 2010–2012, Ukraine earned $18.4 billion annually from metallurgical exports, with metals accounting for nearly a quarter of all export revenue.
Steel Market Challenges
In 2025, the metallurgy sector made up 9% of total exports, compared to an average of about 19% between 2013 and 2021. But the outlook may worsen in the coming years. Starting July 1, the European Union introduced a new steel market safeguard regime that nearly halves the total volume of duty-free steel imports into the EU. Any products exceeding quotas will face a 50% tariff.
At the same time, the CBAM mechanism—a carbon tax on imports of high-emission goods like metals—is taking effect. Research from Opendatabot shows that both tools, though unrelated, work in the same direction: they make access to the EU market more difficult and expensive for external suppliers, including Ukraine.
The decline in metal export revenues and their shrinking share of total exports highlight serious challenges for Ukraine’s steel industry.
The realities of war, combined with new EU trade restrictions, could hurt the competitiveness of Ukrainian producers in global markets. With ongoing shifts in economic policy and global demand, restoring metal export levels may require adapting to new conditions and investing in production modernization.
The challenges faced by Ukraine’s steel industry are compounded by the implementation of new trade regulations. These changes, particularly the carbon border adjustment mechanism, could lead to significant financial losses for the sector, further impacting export revenues. Understanding the full extent of these implications is crucial for grasping the future landscape of Ukraine’s metal exports.