Linking the Conflicts in Ukraine and Iran
On October 18, 2026, the School of War podcast featured a discussion between host Aaron MacLean and retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan, focusing on the connections between the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Iran. They also explored the increasing pressure from the United States on Kyiv to limit attacks targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure. The conversation highlighted key topics such as US military aid, the emergence of new Russian drones, Ukraine’s 'Vivaldi' counteroffensive, and the use of satellite networks like Starlink and Starshield.
US-Ukraine Relations and Strategic Challenges
Tensions between Ukraine and the US administration escalated following a confrontation in the Oval Office on February 28, 2025, involving then-President Donald Trump. Trump has pushed Kyiv to halt strikes against Russian energy assets, a stance that, according to Mick Ryan, complicates the conflict dynamics.
“The current situation has become much harder to defuse because the US president has effectively handed Putin two lifelines.” - Mick Ryan
Ryan emphasized that the only way for Putin to gain any advantage is by winning over President Trump to his side.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continue their large-scale counteroffensive named 'Vivaldi,' reclaiming several hundred square kilometers and liberating towns near Lyman. Russian military casualties have surged, with over 50,000 killed or wounded monthly as of September 2026. However, Russian troop recruitment, at 30,000 to 35,000 personnel per month, fails to offset these losses.
New Russian drones, which are advancements of Iranian 'Shahed' technology, pose significant challenges. Satellite systems play a vital role in countering these threats. Starlink, a civilian satellite constellation, remains essential for Ukraine’s Delta command and control system. Conversely, Starshield—a military satellite network operated by the Pentagon—is not currently accessible to Ukraine, despite Kyiv’s efforts to obtain it.
“Ukraine does not have access to Starshield at this time.” - Senator Marco Rubio
In parallel, the US continues its economic campaign against Iran, with Iranian strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz increasing notably in recent weeks. The Freedom project, aimed at regulating Iranian fertilizer exports, has been ongoing since summer 2026. Simultaneously, the Trump administration has relaxed sanctions on Russian energy exports and begun purchasing diesel fuel directly.
American forces are rapidly adopting Ukrainian drone technology and air defense tactics in the Gulf region. The US autonomous warfare command is scheduled to become operational in October 2027. Mick Ryan pointed out that swift adaptation of enemy technologies is a crucial aspect of modern warfare, noting China’s longstanding focus on monitoring foreign conflicts.
This podcast episode underscored the interconnected nature of global conflicts, particularly between Ukraine and Iran, and highlighted how US policy decisions shape the course of these wars. Technological innovation and strategic economic measures remain vital factors in securing victories on the battlefield today.
The evolving situation in Ukraine is further complicated by external pressures, particularly from the US government. As discussions intensify regarding demands for Ukraine to withdraw from the Donbas, the implications for military strategy and regional stability become increasingly critical. Understanding these dynamics is essential as Ukraine navigates its counteroffensive amidst shifting international expectations.