Ukrainian metallurgy in 2026: risks of production decline due to CBAM and loss of markets
The GMK Center forecast indicates risks of steel production reduction in Ukraine in 2026 due to the impact of the CBAM mechanism, trade restrictions of the European Union, and increasing competition from China. In 2025, steel output in Ukraine may decrease by 4-5% to 7.2-7.3 million tons, which highlights potential challenges for the industry.
In 2023, the Ukrainian metallurgy stabilized, and in 2024 it demonstrated recovery growth. However, according to experts, against the backdrop of changes in foreign economic policy, particularly in connection with the introduction of CBAM, the industry may face new difficulties. At the same time, the export of semi-finished products from Ukraine decreased by 31% in 2025, which also affected overall productivity.
Loss of markets and dependence on the EU
An additional factor that exacerbates risks is the loss of markets in the MENA regions and South America, which accounted for about 400 thousand tons of exports. The share of the European Union in the export of finished steel products from Ukraine reached 81%, and taking into account semi-finished products - 78%. This indicates the dependence of Ukrainian metallurgy on the European market, which may become a problem under trade restrictions.
In 2026, steel output in Ukraine is expected to be around 7.2 million tons. It is important to note that over the past five years, the largest metallurgical enterprises in Ukraine paid taxes and contributions totaling 190 billion hryvnias, or 6.2 billion US dollars. The tax and contribution payments of the four main metallurgical companies in 2024 accounted for 1.6% of revenues to budgets of all levels, highlighting the importance of the industry for the country's economy.
Thus, Ukrainian metallurgy faces serious challenges against the backdrop of global changes in trade and internal economy, which requires the attention of the state and enterprises to ensure stable development of the industry. Considering the significant contribution of metallurgy to the country's economy, strategies need to be developed to adapt to new conditions in order to minimize risks and support the competitiveness of Ukrainian producers in the international market.