Attacks on Russian Oil Refineries
A series of Ukrainian strikes in May 2025 targeted Russian oil refineries, causing processing volumes to drop to 4.58 million barrels per day—the lowest level since October 2009. At least 16 attacks were recorded on fuel production facilities, hitting eight of Russia's ten largest refineries.
Compared to the same period last year, average daily refining volumes fell by 13%, highlighting the severe impact of military operations on the country's energy sector. In response, Russian authorities extended a ban on gasoline exports and introduced new restrictions on aviation fuel exports, effective from June 1, 2026, through November 30, 2026.
Rising Attack Intensity and Consequences
Approximately 30 strikes targeted Russian oil infrastructure in May, signaling an escalation in the campaign. The volume of A-95 gasoline available for trading on the exchange in European Russia fell to about one-third of last year's levels, while prices for this fuel surged by more than 20%.
Sanctions limiting Russia's access to Western repair equipment are making it difficult to restore damaged infrastructure. Serhiy Vakulenko noted that drones are increasingly striking not only primary processing units—which can be repaired relatively quickly—but also secondary units. In contrast, Dmitry Peskov claims that
“the market situation remains stable, and the production decline at certain enterprises is due to scheduled maintenance.”
Early warning signs are emerging on the market, hinting at further challenges for Russia's energy sector. The situation remains tense, and developments in the coming months could significantly affect oil refining volumes and the broader Russian economy.
These events underscore the energy sector's critical role in Russia's economy and its vulnerability to military conflict and international sanctions. Falling refining output could lead to domestic fuel shortages, which would in turn ripple through other economic sectors and affect daily life. Russia's response—including new export restrictions—reflects the gravity of the situation and raises the risk of further escalation and economic strain.
As the situation escalates, it's essential to consider the broader implications of these attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Recent reports reveal that seven refineries have been shut down since the beginning of spring, further straining the nation's energy capabilities. This trend not only highlights the vulnerability of Russia's oil sector but also raises concerns about the long-term effects on global oil markets and regional stability.