Ukrzaliznytsia's rolling stock crisis
Ukraine's state railway operator, Ukrzaliznytsia, is steadily losing its rolling stock due to Russian shelling, even as demand for rail travel continues to climb. According to Iryna Kosse, a leading researcher at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, cutting train services is unlikely because of the issue's social sensitivity. She predicts the company will do everything in its power to avoid reducing routes, as doing so would impact passengers and public sentiment.
Summer outlook
Ukrzaliznytsia warns that buying a ticket this summer may be even harder for Ukrainians than last year. The average ratio of demand to available seats is already 4 to 1, and during the summer season it could rise to 6 people per seat. Some train cars have already been damaged by shelling, while a significant portion of the fleet needs repairs or is due for decommissioning.
Kosse notes that raising fares for certain passenger services could reduce the frenzy, but it would not solve the underlying shortage of train cars.
“I don't expect another fare hike because they just raised them. They announced that dynamic pricing will now apply to some ticket categories,” she said.
The company has already received the first cars from a new order placed with the Kryukiv Railway Car Building Plant, but this partial fleet renewal cannot keep pace with the rate of losses.
“The situation is that rolling stock is being destroyed and lost, and it cannot be replaced quickly,” Kosse emphasized.
She also suggested that Ukrzaliznytsia might turn to the Baltic states in search of used cars that are nearing retirement.
In short, Ukrzaliznytsia faces serious challenges in maintaining rail service amid surging demand and war-related losses of its fleet. The push to find new train cars, along with potential fare adjustments, shows the company is trying to strike a balance between passenger needs and available resources. Against this backdrop, it is important to watch for possible solutions that could help stabilize the situation in Ukraine's rail transport sector.
As the railway operator grapples with a significant decline in its rolling stock, the outlook for summer travel becomes increasingly concerning. With demand for seats far exceeding availability, the potential for severe seat shortages looms large, raising questions about how effectively Ukrzaliznytsia can meet passenger needs during the peak season.