According to experts' forecasts, this autumn the hryvnia will remain stable against the dollar, but next year the dollar rate may shoot up. At the same time, there are also positive scenarios for the development of the national currency situation.
Despite the fact that in recent months the dollar rate has almost not fluctuated, Ukrainian citizens continue to be interested in the question: what to expect next? According to market experts, the American dollar will not disappoint us in the near future - for one dollar they will ask from 23 to 25 hryvnias. This relative stability will be affected by the fact that for several months there have been no serious problems in the Ukrainian economy, and the state has managed to smooth out all the sharp angles.
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As is known, Ukraine successfully concluded a deal with international creditors in August. They agreed to forgive one fifth of the Ukrainian debt (20%). Thanks to this, the country was able to avoid a technical default - now and in the near future.
Many believe that an important factor influencing the dollar rate is the pre-election race. However, experts disagree. They are confident that there is no reason to expect panic among the people, as the population is currently much more concerned about the economic crisis in the country than political intrigues.
However, according to analysts, the rate may rise again in 2016. The Ukrainian economy is currently in decline and is unlikely to show improvement in such a short period, which may allow the American currency to strengthen significantly. According to experts' forecasts - up to 34 UAH.
But, under favorable conditions, the average annual dollar rate will fluctuate between 22-29 UAH.
The main risks to take into account are the peak crisis period (which will last, at best, until spring 2016, or even longer), the possible escalation of hostilities in the Donbas, problems in the banking system, the lack of foreign investments, and issues with the export of Ukrainian goods.
Meanwhile, experts also suggest positive scenarios for the Ukrainian economy. In particular, these forecasts will be facilitated by the crisis in the Russian Federation, which could even lead to its collapse. The Kremlin will have no more opportunities to continue fighting in the eastern regions of Ukraine, and the borders will come back under government control. In such a scenario, the national currency should strengthen to 20 UAH per 1 dollar.