In the eastern regions of Ukraine, there has been an absolute lull recently. According to the General Staff, there have been no shelling incidents in Donbass over the past day - this applies to the Mariupol, Donetsk, and Luhansk directions.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko stated that there will most likely be no extension of the peace agreements, as this would continue the occupation of independent Ukraine. The Minsk agreements expire in December 2015 - experts have described the probable scenarios for the development of events in Donbass.
In their opinion, the silence in the eastern regions is related to the convening of the UN General Assembly and Vladimir Putin's visit to New York. At the assembly meeting, the Russian leader intends to deliver a speech, so he is trying to secure himself under the supposedly established peace in Donbass.
Meanwhile, there are other reasons for the lull. In particular, the conflict in Syria. Russia has intervened in it and lacks the strategy and resources to fight on two fronts.
At the same time, Petro Poroshenko understands perfectly well that he can influence Vladimir Putin's position, experts believe. The Ukrainian leader explicitly states that Russia must fulfill the conditions of the Minsk agreements, otherwise international sanctions will be tightened and lead the Russian economy to collapse. Furthermore, Ukraine has recently been increasing its military potential and seeking assistance from the international community, while Russia continues to decline.
What awaits Donbass? According to experts, a key aspect here is the signals that the Kremlin will receive during the UN General Assembly. However, analysts believe that Putin has no intention of completely leaving Donbass. He may destroy the so-called republics and cease military actions, but he needs to maintain influence over the political processes in Ukraine.
If Russia does not fulfill its part of the peace deal by the end of this year, a new round of negotiations will most likely be conducted. However, Ukraine may act differently and, for example, introduce peacekeeping forces into Donbass.
If the conflict drags on, it will only worsen the situation for Russia, experts believe. In 2016, Ukraine and the West's position will become harsher.
Putin, for his part, will not miss the opportunity to use the conflict in Syria. He may offer his services as a negotiator, demanding that the interests of the Russian Federation be taken into account in return.