War in Ukraine: experts analyze losses, army, and scenarios for ending
Four years of full-scale war have led to deep changes in Ukraine. Experts, summarizing preliminary results, note both catastrophic losses and unexpected achievements. On one hand, Ukraine continues to control 80.7% of its territory, where about 70% of the pre-war population remains, and the economy has retained 79-84% of the GDP of 2021. On the other hand, 114,000 km² of land has been lost, over 10 million people (occupied territories and refugees), more than 15,000 civilians have died, and unofficial data suggests over 100,000 servicemen.
Negative consequences and positive achievements
Among the main negative consequences, specialists cite:
- demographic collapse;
- loss of competitiveness of the political system;
- brain drain;
- degradation of the social sphere.
Conversely, the positive gains include unprecedented military experience and the creation of a powerful army.
"The Ukrainian army at this moment is stronger than absolutely all European armies combined on the European continent," noted expert Yuriy Havryletsko.There has also been a significant technological leap, particularly in the area of drones and military medicine.
Forecasts regarding the end of the war
Regarding the end of the war, there are various forecasts. Modeling exhaustion indicates a period between 2028-2030, while geopolitical cycles suggest 2040-2045. However, experts do not rule out a political solution and freezing the conflict much earlier. The British Minister of Defense, in particular, stated that
"the war must end by the end of 2026."To restore the country, there is an emphasis on the need for clear identification of national interests, the fight against political hypocrisy and corruption, as well as the return of real sovereignty.