Ukraine’s Raw Milk Production in Q1 2026
During the first quarter of 2026, Ukraine produced 1.31 million metric tons of raw milk—a 10% decline compared to the same period last year. While agricultural enterprises managed to increase their output, household farms recorded a sharp drop in milk yields. Meanwhile, purchase prices for raw milk fell by 23%, raising the risk that up to 20% of the country’s industrial milk production capacity could be lost.
According to March 2026 data, industrial farms produced 285,800 tons of raw milk, reflecting a 4.9% increase year-over-year. In contrast, household farms yielded just 210,400 tons in March 2026—a 25.8% decrease from March 2025. Over the entire first quarter of 2026, household farms produced 510,000 tons of raw milk, which is 25% less than in Q1 2025 and 32% below the level recorded in Q4 2025.
Production Trends and Market Conditions
Enterprises accounted for 58% of total raw milk production, while household farms made up the remaining 42%. In February 2026, 12 regions reported production growth, with Rivne Oblast leading the way at +30%. Other regions with positive results include:
- Lviv Oblast (+16%)
- Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast (+15%)
- Ternopil Oblast (+13%)
- Zhytomyr Oblast (+11%)
- Chernihiv Oblast (+8%)
- Vinnytsia Oblast (+6%)
- Mykolaiv Oblast (+5%)
- Volyn Oblast (+3%)
- Cherkasy Oblast (+3%)
- Khmelnytskyi Oblast (+2%)
- Kyiv Oblast (+0.3%)
The top raw milk-producing regions in March 2026 were:
- Poltava Oblast (117,200 tons)
- Cherkasy Oblast (98,600 tons)
- Chernihiv Oblast (76,500 tons)
- Khmelnytskyi Oblast (75,800 tons)
- Vinnytsia Oblast (74,000 tons)
In January 2026, some small and medium-sized farms were already considering temporary production halts. By late February 2026, the Milk Producers Association warned that the industry could lose up to 20% of its industrial output by year-end.
Direct operational costs now exceed 16 UAH per kilogram, while the average purchase price in February 2026 stood at just 13.5 UAH per kilogram (excluding VAT). Hanna Lavrenyuk noted that farms had been waiting for positive market signals through March—and without them, many planned to cease operations and forgo planting corn for silage.
The Ukrainian dairy market remains under severe strain, driven largely by declining productivity among household farms, which has significantly weighed on overall production figures. With falling purchase prices and rising input costs, farmers face serious challenges that could shrink industrial output. These pressures may have lasting consequences for Ukraine’s dairy sector, particularly in terms of the country’s food security.
As Ukraine's milk production faces significant challenges, the industry is exploring new markets to sustain its output. Recently, Syria has emerged as a leading buyer of Ukrainian skim milk powder, highlighting the shifting dynamics in global dairy trade. This development could offer crucial support to Ukrainian producers amid declining domestic yields and market pressures.