Breaking Down the Roots of Russia’s War in Ukraine
In an interview featured on the Kennan Institute program 'Origins of the War,' CrowdStrike founder Dmitri Alperovitch offered his perspective on why Russia invaded Ukraine. His analysis centers on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s character, historical outlook, and five rational drivers that Alperovitch believes led to the conflict. This context is especially relevant for Western audiences trying to understand the Kremlin’s decision-making beyond surface-level narratives.
Alperovitch noted that during the 1990s, while working in Saint Petersburg’s city administration, Putin oversaw licenses for casinos and ports—sectors controlled by organized crime. He also referenced a 1991 documentary where Putin criticized Lenin for creating 'fake' republics within the USSR. In Alperovitch’s view, Putin’s war stems from five rational factors:
- geography
- security
- history
- 'a grand destiny'
- his ego
He also pointed out that in 2014, Putin dismissed warnings from his own economic advisors about the risk of sanctions following the annexation of Crimea.
Cyber Shifts and Alperovitch’s Forecasts
By fall 2021, a shift in Russian cyber operations against Ukraine signaled the coming invasion, with hackers targeting police databases. Alperovitch links the timing of the 2022 assault to the pandemic and Putin’s fear of his own mortality. His assessment includes stark language, such as:
'He became a bandit and a thug' — Dmitri Alperovitch
Alperovitch also quotes Putin directly:
'Your job is to manage the economy. My job is to take Crimea. I will do mine, and you do yours' — Vladimir Putin
The most likely outcome, Alperovitch argues, is a frozen front line reminiscent of the Korean armistice. This scenario underscores the difficult position Ukraine faces. He also expresses doubt about Putin’s intentions, stating confidently that 'he will not do it.'
Alperovitch’s analysis highlights how Putin’s personal motivations may be central to Russia’s geopolitical strategies. At the same time, his predictions for the conflict’s endgame suggest ongoing instability, with no easy path to peace. Events in Ukraine continue to shape not just regional but global security, making these insights particularly timely.
Understanding the motivations behind Putin's actions is crucial, especially when considering the recent shift in his narrative towards self-defense, which many analysts attribute to a sense of humiliation. This perspective is explored in depth in a related article, where the implications of his psychological state and strategic choices are analyzed. For further insights, see Putin's performance of self-defense.