Belarus Hands Over Evidence of Lukashenko’s War Preparations to Ukraine

Analytical Report on Belarusian Military Activity

According to ХВИЛЯ: The Belarusian Joint Transitional Cabinet has submitted a 30-page analytical report to Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, detailing how the Lukashenko regime is gearing up for a potential military conflict. The document, released by Deputy Cabinet Head and leader of the People’s Anti-Crisis Administration Pavel Latushko on Telegram, provides a thorough breakdown of shifts in military law, troop increases, defense spending hikes, and the positioning of forces near Ukraine’s borders.

Key Findings of the Report

According to the report, the number of contract soldiers in Belarus’s army has grown by 1.5 times since 2022. The country’s mobilization reserve is estimated at 289,000 people. The Southern Operational Command, which could exceed 80,000 troops, is being deployed near the Ukrainian border. Additionally, Belarus is forming a so-called people’s militia. Defense spending has quintupled over the last four years, and in 2024 alone, the military received over 4,000 new pieces of equipment.

The report also notes that Russian forces remain stationed in Belarus, with Russian instructors training Belarusian troops. Defensive lines are being built along the borders with Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania. Military-patriotic training has intensified in schools and youth camps, while Minsk has inspected 5,000 bomb shelters. Mandatory reserves of petroleum products have been doubled to a 30-day supply.

Changes to Belarus’s military legislation include:

• Expanding the right to use force through the concept of preemptive strikes;
• Minsk moving away from its neutral status;
• Revising the country’s defense policy;
• Shifting the civilian system onto a war footing;
• Updating medical protocols and inspecting shelters and alert systems;
• Mobilizing civilian transport in case of conscription;
• Conducting regular large-scale military drills.

This report underscores Belarus’s escalating military activity, which may signal preparations for potential conflicts in the region. Given the substantial changes in military strategy and legislation, the situation has raised concerns not only in Ukraine but also among neighboring countries. The intensification of military measures and defense buildup could serve as a warning to the international community about possible security threats in Eastern Europe.

As tensions escalate, Belarus's military preparations are becoming increasingly evident. The recent report highlights significant changes in military strategy and troop deployment, raising concerns about the potential for conflict. For a deeper understanding of how these developments may lead to further aggression, you can read more about the impending missile strikes from Belarus on Ukraine here.