Davos, Trump and Greenland: why Ukraine will not be the main topic of the forum

According to Студия Руслана Бизяева: Interview dedicated to expectations from the upcoming forum in Davos, particularly the possible meeting between Zelensky and Trump, analyzes the course of Ukrainian-American negotiations and discusses the foreign policy of the Trump administration, focused on the topic of Greenland. The crisis situation in Ukraine's energy system and the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to conduct offensive operations in 2026 are also discussed.

Host: Andriy Volodymyrovych, please tell us your expectations from the forum in Davos. Will there be a meeting between Trump and Zelensky during this event? And by the way, the Ukrainian-American delegation negotiations took place this weekend in the United States, based on the public information we all have. How could these negotiations have ended?

Guest: The negotiations were about security guarantees, the issue of Ukraine's recovery was raised, and everything else, including territorial issues. But judging by the fact that there was no information for two days and only general phrases sounded in the evening, this indicates that the negotiations were difficult and, apparently, did not come to anything specific. This suggests that it is unlikely to have excessive expectations from the meeting in Davos. Trump avoids specifics and usually flows along the lines of general phrases; I think Zelensky and Trump will not come to anything specific. At best, Zelensky will shake his head again, but upon returning to Kyiv, he will do everything his way, or rather, as he agreed with his European partners. Apparently, it's not worth nurturing illusions about some radical shift towards peace occurring at this forum.

Host: Will the issue of the war in Ukraine be one of the central topics at the forum?

Guest: Yes, indeed, the issue of the war in Ukraine will be one of the central ones. However, considering that there will be about 1700 top managers and company directors at the forum, it is such a globalist gathering during which opinions and visions for the future are exchanged. Therefore, Ukraine will be discussed, but I think nothing will be decided for Ukraine in Switzerland. At best, they will agree to agree, as is traditionally the case. They agreed to agree, and the war continues. The expectation of Europeans and Volodymyr Oleksandrovych is to wait out Trump. Someone will have to wait out in the trenches, and not everyone will survive to that moment.

Host: Andriy Volodymyrovych, please tell us, how much can Donald Trump and the American administration currently focus on the Russian-Ukrainian issue, on the Russian-Ukrainian war?

Guest: Donald Trump is currently focusing on Greenland, he constantly talks about it. He mentions that there are no legal documents in Greenland regarding land rights. Talks about a Russian threat, about a Chinese threat in Greenland - it's laughable. Greenland is quite far from Russia, considering the capabilities of the Russian Navy and Air Force. History has very few large examples of successful amphibious operations. Trump carries something that sometimes does not align with objective reality. Trump forgot that when in 1917 the United States, motivated by the threat that the Germans could establish a submarine base in the Danish islands, purchased the islands from Denmark. And it was emphasized that the United States had no claims to Greenland. Trump seems to have forgotten this. Now we see how Trump is destroying NATO at breakneck speed. To talk about protecting Greenland when the United States has two military bases there, and Greenland has 57,000 residents, is more than enough to address military tasks. Obviously, something else is going on here. Perhaps, similar to how fentanyl serves as a cover for ambitions regarding Venezuela's oil reserves, there is something else in Greenland apart from protection. And talks about the need to build a golden dome, an air defense system, currently belong to the realm of fantastical unrealistic ideas.

Host: If you allow me, let’s talk about Greenland. Based on the rhetoric of the American leader himself, Trump promised to eliminate the Russian threat in Greenland. NATO has been telling Denmark for 20 years: "You must eliminate the Russian threat in Greenland." Unfortunately, Denmark couldn’t do anything about it. Now is the time, and it will be done. What Russian threat are we talking about in the context of Greenland?

Guest: What Russian threat? How does it manifest? Does it mean that a Russian base will appear there? Denmark, on the contrary, belongs to that group of European countries that take a tough stance on Russia. Denmark has given its only artillery regiment, armed with French "Caesars", to the Ukrainian Armed Forces free of charge. Denmark has no military capabilities to protect Greenland. When Trump acts within the logic of this new strange world, where the right of might prevails over the rule of law, it is natural to start contemplating unification, consolidation. The ghost of the Kalmar Union has begun to hover again. This lawless world dictates trends such that those who feel weaker than the strong neighbor must unite. This is what we will observe in the near future. The Russian Federation or China has no current military capabilities to capture Denmark. Denmark is a member of NATO. Collective security. And the United States is the leading country in NATO because 80% of NATO's budget consists of American money. The nuclear umbrella primarily belongs to the United States, as do the intelligence capabilities. Without the United States, NATO's military might becomes an ephemeral concept. Europeans felt so secure for 30 years after the collapse of the USSR that they began to radically reduce their armed forces. Europe will have to revise its defense policy, possibly without NATO. This is what needs to be discussed at the Davos forum, how to live without military support from the United States. Although Trump can be waited out. Trump could lose the midterm elections this fall. Then there could be another shift in U.S. policy. What worries me more is that discussions about the Russian threat to Greenland happen against the backdrop of Trump practically abandoning Ukraine. The issue of stopping aid to Ukraine has touched on not only offensive but also defensive weapons, such as air defense systems. And the Russian threat to the energy system, which could turn into a humanitarian disaster, really doesn't seem to worry Trump. He is preoccupied with fantasies about Greenland while the concrete plight here in Ukraine concerns him only peripherally. He makes it clear to Zelensky that he is his only trump card. But how does this manifest? In a promise of 800 billion for recovery? Perhaps, in Davos he will raise the issue of "My 28 points" and plans for Ukraine's recovery, also again, nothing guaranteed. Or live with the Europeans, continue fighting. Keep in mind that out of the 90 billion that Europeans promised you, at best 30-40 billion will reach Ukraine, and not in cash but for the procurement of weapons from European manufacturers. A trump card is a trump card, but in the end, it turns out the card is beaten.

Host: The New York Times writes that the conflict between Europe and Trump over Greenland may impact support for Ukraine. Europe still heavily relies on U.S. support within NATO and in the war against Russia in Ukraine. This is why European leaders have been trying to act cautiously in their relations with Trump until the last moment. Andriy Volodymyrovych, well, Ursula von der Leyen seems to have made a statement, the president of the European Commission, that the EU will fight for Greenland. As Mrs. Ursula expressed, the European Union will protect Greenland with the full might of the fifteen, probably because German soldiers and one British officer have flown out of Greenland.

Guest: Yes, that seems quite funny. It looks phantasmagorical. They flew in, accomplished a mission, as official sources write, then flew away. But yes, they are clearly not the Germans they used to be. This support is expressed in such a phantasmagorical-cartoonish form. And yes, I already mentioned that the military might of the European Union countries without the United States, especially in terms of nuclear weapons, and both the French and the British have drastically fallen behind. Everyone understands the trend. And, apparently, in the nearest decade, NATO may cease to exist due to the specific policies of the United States. Anyone can understand that today Trump is in charge, tomorrow someone else will come and tighten the noose even further. Can one rely on such a partner, such an ally? I think history lessons tell us that relying on the United States as an ally is a very risky business. As Kissinger said: "Being an enemy of the United States is dangerous, while being a friend of the United States is deadly dangerous." This is an example from the seventies in South Vietnam, when they also promised to help, and two years later, the South Vietnamese soldiers had one clip per week. The source of aid ran out, the foreign policy concept changed, and South Vietnam was abandoned. Let’s hope we don't end up with a similar fate. By the way, Beijing has commented, calling on the U.S. to stop using the so-called Chinese threat as a pretext for pursuing its own interests. It is clear that this refers to Greenland. To play the role of a global gendarme regarding Greenland, speculating on the Chinese or Russian threat, and retreating before that threat in other places - is quite a policy. It is not surprising that everyone sees that the emperor is naked, that behind Trump’s loud statements, there is nothing. He has already stated that he is not obliged to care about peace now that he has been snubbed with the Nobel Peace Prize. If we think about it, the eight conflicts that Trump has halted are actually not resolved, everything is hanging by a thread. Trump is actively trying to promote theses that contradict his own actions in other corners of the globe. Therefore, understandable irritation ensues. The resource deal Trump signed, hoping he would continue aid, resembles Ukraine paying reparations to the United States for the assistance provided under Biden. Just look at the first swallow - the right to develop a lithium deposit in the Kirovohrad region, which an American billionaire received. Two percent that Ukraine will receive while the investor recoups his millions is ridiculous. This is, in essence, a typical debt deal that a metropolis makes with semi-colonial dependent states. This is the whole policy of Trump - profit above all.

Host: Yes, a question from our viewers. Yesterday, the EU signed a document with Latin America about duty-free trade. What will be more in the EU?

Guest: No, signing this document does not alleviate those problems currently facing the EU. The tariffs introduced by Trump for countries that support Denmark's position - who do they hit? German automotive manufacturing will certainly suffer. The American market for German automakers is a premium market. And it's clear that these tariffs are a very painful blow for them. Latin America will open up some new opportunities, but it doesn’t solve the main problem of the European Union - searching for new opportunities in a changing world. Germany's economic miracle was based on cheap energy resources. This policy allowed Germany to tap into the Russian market. But over time, China, as a trading and economic partner, needs Europe significantly less than in the noughties. Europeans will be looking for new opportunities. This deal is of that nature, just like Canada, which signed a comprehensive trade and economic agreement with the PRC, probably also against Trump, who is setting up barriers to trade with countries that had historically been key partners of the U.S. The world is changing.

Host: Ukrainians may completely remain without light and heat after strikes on nuclear power plant substations that Russia is planning. This was stated by the Main Intelligence Directorate. By destroying or disabling those substations, Moscow aims to disconnect the nuclear power units from Ukraine's United Energy System. Intelligence believes this will be done with