Expert Predicts When the Decisive Battle for Donbas Will Begin

Serhiy Hromenko’s Forecast on the Escalation of the War

According to Radiotrek — Світ: On July 18, 2026, at 09:00, expert Serhiy Hromenko shared his outlook on the escalating Russia-Ukraine war via Facebook. He stated that strikes on Russian oil refineries have been the most effective measure Ukraine has taken in the past four years. Hromenko also emphasized that for the first time since 1999, ordinary Russians are personally feeling the impact of the war, which increases the likelihood of mass mobilization in Russia-estimated at 90%.

Mobilization and Frontline Dynamics

The expert predicts that Russia will announce mobilization in late September or early October. He links this to a conflict escalation likely triggered by Putin’s diplomatic failures.

“Because of this, along with his diplomatic setbacks, Putin has become entrenched and will push for escalation,” Hromenko stated.

He also indicated that the decisive battle for Donbas must begin no later than December 1, and that this will likely coincide with renewed missile attacks on Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure.

According to the author, if Russian forces fail to break through the front lines, a freeze of the conflict could shift from a hypothetical scenario to reality.

“I hope this is the final throes of Putin’s aggression,” the author remarked.

The frontline situation remains tense, and Ukraine is preparing for potential new challenges.

Hromenko’s forecast underscores the critical state of the frontline and the possibility of further escalation. A key point is that ordinary Russians are now feeling the war’s consequences, which could reshape domestic politics in Russia. The announcement of mobilization might significantly alter the conflict’s dynamics, as well as international reactions and support for Ukraine.

As the situation in Ukraine intensifies, the recent fuel crisis in Russia serves as a backdrop to the looming conflict. The ramifications of Ukraine's strategic strikes are not only impacting military operations but are also reshaping the domestic landscape in Russia, potentially influencing public sentiment and military mobilization amidst growing tensions.