Harry Tabakh on Negotiations with Russia: Real Security Guarantees and the Difficult Balance Between Justice and Reality

According to Студия Руслана Бизяева: Interview with military expert Harry Tabakh about Putin's statements, the negotiation process between Ukraine and Russia, possible security guarantees from the USA instead of NATO membership, as well as the difficulty of finding a balance between justice and reality regarding territories, sanctions, and reparations.

I suggest we start our conversation with the following. Putin stated that Russia has the ability to ramp up its offensive and will consistently address the task of creating and expanding a security buffer zone in Ukraine. He also said that the goals of the so-called special military operation will definitely be accomplished. We would prefer to eliminate the root causes of the conflict through diplomacy. But if they refuse to talk to us, Russia will achieve the release of historical lands through military means. He also stated that the possibility of attacking Europe is a lie and nonsense. Essentially, we did not hear anything new or sensational from Putin, but these statements were made precisely at a time when the negotiation process was in full swing. What does that indicate, in your opinion?

It indicates that we are dealing with a KGB man. He understands well what they want to achieve, but that does not mean we agree with it. Ukraine does not agree, Europe does not agree. He says he does not intend to attack Europe; that is total nonsense. But he never said he does not intend to attack Ukraine. He claimed we are brotherly nations, that we have no problems. And now it turns out that we do. Listening to what Putin says... You clearly read somewhere and said, 'problems in Ukraine.' Putin never says 'in Ukraine.' He always emphasizes 'on Ukraine.' What you read was probably from Ukrainian sources. I wouldn't pay too much attention to that because it's for his domestic market. He tells his serfs such things.

Host: And during, again, the negotiation process...

There is no negotiation process. This is another gross mistake on the part of Ukrainian media. There are no negotiations. Consultations are underway. That's different. Negotiations involve two opposing sides or two countries that disagree, sometimes with a mediator. Here we have consultations; there are no negotiations. And what is being thrown out there... I am already tired of urging responsible journalists, political scientists, political managers... stop talking like you are there. What are you doing? You are creating a huge diversion and disrupting this path to negotiations. Throughout my diplomatic experience, military experience, I myself participated in negotiations, not at such a high level, but I was present a couple of times. And leaks from such negotiations are equivalent to death. These negotiations are doomed because they talk about things that cannot be immediately made public. This is point A, point B. Then we go, we move forward. Every second publication, including American and European, publishes drafts of certain plans, agreements, arrangements. These are done by those who do not want negotiations. Those who want to sabotage negotiations. So when you hear who talks about the so-called negotiations, although these are consultations, they are trying to disrupt negotiations, so that we never reach them and the war continues. That's what they are doing. We do not know what is being discussed there and how it is being discussed. They may talk one thing to each other, and then move from this one to another. And when something is taken out of context, such leaks are the actions of traitors; these are people who do not want peace. And this gets picked up, hyped, and presented in a completely different light. I do not know what is happening there, but I know that this is presented that way because when such things happen, I consider the negotiations to be sabotaged. People who do this want to disrupt negotiations.

Host: Let me remind you of one thing. Neither Mr. Vytkov nor Mr. Kushner have any authority; they do not make any decisions. They hold no official position.

Moreover, I will tell you, you won't believe it, Vadim, but for those who do not believe, artificial intelligence and Google to your house, neither Kushner nor Vytkov receives a salary. Moreover, their expenses are not covered. They work on a public basis. They do all of this at their own expense. And, of course, when dirt is poured on them from the Ukrainian side... Why do they do this? What do they need this for? They were asked... I don’t know, like a father asking a daughter, a husband asking daughter... the matchmaker asked the matchmaker to go figure it out. These are their friends, not official representatives, neither a minister nor a deputy minister. And they travel to Israel, China, Europe, and Russia at their own expense, trying to resolve everything. Their expenses are not covered: neither for flights, nor hotels, nor food. And dirt is being thrown on them. Therefore, these are not negotiations; these are consultations. In negotiations, official representatives participate. Negotiations involve two hostile countries, sometimes with a mediator. So what are they discussing, what can we discuss in negotiations, what can we propose to each other to come to some conclusion, so that we can then discuss this in negotiations, sign a contract and wait for the next war.

Host: Well, if we talk about those consultations that took place in Berlin, two rounds, it seems, on Saturday and Sunday, the press reported that these were, in fact, some of the most productive negotiations. That is, this was not a meeting just for the sake of shaking hands, it was not a meeting for the sake of a meeting, of photographing, they were already elaborating concrete moments and mechanisms of certain actions. And already this weekend, representatives of military corps will gather in Miami to discuss military-technical issues on the cards, as they say.

Well, let’s hope that this is so. We don’t know. We only have one resource, an official source. That is President Zelensky. I don’t think he is trying to deceive anyone, who knows. And this comes from him, that it was... that they achieved that the United States will provide this fifth paragraph like in NATO, only from the United States of America.

Host: And what... is the NATO issue closed? There will be no membership for Ukraine in NATO.

So it never existed. Listen, back in 2008, when there were no questions at all about anything related to Ukraine, it was all great. I was in Bucharest at this NATO summit when suddenly Germany and France voted when Angela Merkel... Nicolas Sarkozy said to President Yushchenko: 'Victor...' And Trump is to blame for this. Yes, it leads to such absurdity. Therefore, today, of course... NATO... And again, the argument is that this is because of our constitution. But this is in your constitution; it's not in our constitution. And again, why do you need this NATO? What if... If this is true, if this is true, what President Zelensky and America are saying is true, President Trump will provide such a clause that equates to the fifth clause of NATO, then I think it is much better than NATO. Because NATO is a collective creation, just like the UN, like the European Union, like all these collective farms. And if America will also oversee issues related to ceasefires, deployment... about which American press also writes, we do not know how true this is.

Host: Again, which American press, which American press? We have different presses.

If you want... I am also an American. This is all written by the New York Times about this.

Oh, New York Times also wrote that there is no Holodomor. New York Times also wrote that there is no Holocaust. New York Times has written a lot. New York Times is on our board of shame, just like the BBC and CNN.

These are such things; this should always be looked at. Sometimes, of course, they write the truth to mislead us. But the fact is that I believe, again, this is my personal opinion, if this is true, it is much better than the fifth paragraph of NATO because NATO is a collective farm. Moreover, this farm is managed, just like the UN, like the EU, not by people we elected, who were voted for and elected by the people, but by officials who were appointed there by other officials from their countries. Also, this collective farm has to get to consensus. They never reach consensus. They never have reached consensus. They will never reach consensus, especially on an issue like Ukraine. Because each country has its own interests, its own bureaucracy. But when such agreements are concluded separately with countries, especially with the United States, and we take responsibility for it, you end up like Israel, not in NATO and not in the EU, like Japan, like Korea. That is, we already bear such personal responsibility for that, not in collectives, not collectively, where we can say: 'No, Vasya, Petya, he's to blame, he's to blame.' You know, and blame everyone else. But here everything is taken on oneself. And this is good. I believe that such agreements would be very beneficial for Ukraine directly with the United States, where we give what is called guarantees, although there are also no guarantees in the fifth paragraph of NATO. When such agreements will be with Britain, with Germany, that is, with separate countries that bear responsibility separately, not collectively. I understand that we are all products of the Soviet Union, we are for collectiveness, all together. If you take one stick, it can be broken, but a whole broom cannot be broken. This is all a slogan. You owe me, you give back. You signed it, you answer. So I believe that, of course, if this is again true, if this exists, then, of course, this is great. But again, all these rumors, all these leaks, all these throw-ins are real sabotage. And during the war, there should be no such things. There should be no such things at all, but during the war, this is a criminal offense, I believe.

Host: Harry, Lavrov's deputy Ryabkov says that Ukraine and Russia are on the verge of a peace agreement. We are ready for an agreement. We hope the agreement will come sooner rather than later. Russia does not agree to compromises on territories and the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine.

Well, great, very good. They do not agree to the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine. NATO in general or certain troops? Again, this all can be interpreted. What do you mean by that? Do you mean NATO bases, or do you mean only Americans there, or only British, or someone else? Therefore, these are such slogans; this again is for internal consumption. What does it mean can be interpreted in different ways and understood in different ways. This all must be discussed during negotiations; all these details are being worked out. The turning point of negotiations is concluding. And we say we will be at negotiations, we have borders. In negotiations, we discuss borders. You are ready this way and that way. You are ready to move here so that they move there. And everything must, you understand, Vadim, every coin has two sides. Right now, they are screaming that Ukrainians are retreating. Ukrainians are supposedly retreating somewhere, Russians somewhere, and somewhere they understand that negotiations are coming and a front line will be drawn now, and we need to take more advantageous positions, not just stand out in the open, but take more advantageous positions. And for this, we need to retreat and fortify these positions, that is, prepare for the next attack. Because what... because this paper is signed does not mean that the Russians will not start again at some point. We have to prepare for the next one. This is just a prelude, God willing, so that the Ukrainians could regroup, build some... I understand that it is about a temporary ceasefire, after which, of course, all this...

Host: In the sense that when the Israelis signed all these papers and all this, do you think they did not know that throughout these 80 years the Arabs would still attack them and continue to attack?

And this is such life. The same thing. You understand that these negotiations or some document will not resolve the problem in Ukraine. But we are moving in the right direction. We must save the nation, not just the territory, but the nation. Again, I say this as a person who is a son of a people that has not had its own land for 2000 years.

Host: Well, regarding territory, Harry, many people may hyperbolize the significance of this whole issue, speaking first and foremost about land rather than people. I have also come across this information. And the same Ushakov, Putin's assistant, spoke about it, that yes, here is some kind of free demilitarized zone, there will be no Ukrainian troops and no Russian troops, but the Russian Guard will be present. And Zelensky says that this is the most painful, sensitive question and so on.

Of course, of course. This is very sensitive; this is the most sensitive issue because it is the most commercial. Again, if we look at this, we discuss what it means to surrender or release territory. How is this to be understood? De facto and de jure. These questions are being discussed because de facto and de jure are two different things. De facto these territories are with the Russians, just like Crimea. This is de facto. De jure do we recognize this? No, de jure we do not recognize this. Therefore, this does not want international recognition. How is he going to get it? Here by his means. For now, by wanting... wanting is not harmful. He is receiving a blockade of Russia. Today we have whole decrees regarding the shadow fleet, Russian ships that are now drifting in all oceans, not knowing where to dock with this oil. And Senator Graham says he will soon bring some sanctions from hell to a vote in the Senate. And of course, Putin understands that yes, he has such a situation not very good, but again, a balance must be struck in everything. Of course, we want the collapse of Russia, for them to pay for everything, for Putin to be brought to trial. I think I want this more than anyone else because I do not even understand how I got into this war. But the reality is different. What we want and what is happening. And Putin has another reality as well. We understand that if we increase the pressure on the Russian economy, we will be destroying it, then more people will join the army. Has anyone thought that very often, when the economy becomes bad, weak, then stability and some salary, and food, and clothing, and a roof over your head finds the army, and people begin to join the army? Do we want even more of these idiots from the villages to go into the army in Russia? No. Therefore, there are also many nuances, Vadim, when we want to do one thing, but it turns out differently. That is, everything must be balanced. And I believe the only person trying to do this is President Trump. But everyone sees it from a different angle. Everyone sees that he is harming America, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, and so on because he does not fully do what they want, how they want it, as they see it, to their benefit, only fully to their benefit. You cannot be a mediator and say you will only do it for one benefit. This ends up like an Israeli-Arab variant when the Arabs say: 'We want negotiations with Israel, we want to achieve peace with Israel.' You sit down for consultations with him, you say: 'Okay, how do you want to do this?' 'We want Israel to perish, to kill all of them.' Yes. Israelis, do you want that? The man says: 'No, we do not want that.' The Arabs say: 'Oh, you see, we want to sit at the negotiation table, to make them an offer, but they do not want.' So what do both sides do? They start fighting. They start doing the same thing. You cannot say, 'We want Putin to go to trial, for all lands to be returned.' And in this way, we want to sit at the negotiation table. Yes, but they do not want that. They want to conquer all of Ukraine and enslave all of Ukraine. They believe this is right. This will be some kind of compromise about the liberation of historical... liberation, yes, all this and this will be justice; this will be... And for some reason, Ukrainians do not want this; they believe it is not so. And how do you balance this? And Trump and the Trumpists are to blame. This is the easiest way out. We are not to blame. The ones to blame are those who are trying to figure something out. Do you think Trump or me, or someone else in the environment or Kushner or Vytkov want this? What is interesting to us? We want to see Russia come out like it did with Gusev? No, no one wants that. Everyone wants justice. But as my dad used to say, there is no justice. You know, in the venereology dispensary, all doctors are Jewish, and all patients are Russian. Is that fair? No. Well, what can you do?

Host: Well, it's fair. Bloomberg Agency writes that the USA is preparing new sanctions against the Russian energy sector. If Putin rejects the peace agreement with Ukraine, various options are being considered, including pursuing shadow fleet vessels, which you mentioned, and traders who facilitate these operations. There was also information that the European Union is preparing an entire twentieth sanctions package against Russia. Well, in this way, Trump is preparing a political maneuver in case Putin sends everyone packing, right?

This is actually chess. He is playing chess. You need to see further than your nose. You have to be cunning; you need to fight with cunning. It's hard for people to understand this because they want peace now and want peace on their terms. Everyone wants that. That's how people are arranged. But it does not work like that. I want that too, my dear, but it does not work like that. We need to find a way to preserve the Ukrainian nation, to preserve Ukrainian culture. And then we'll see how things will progress. In history, everything can change very quickly. Again, the Soviet Union won in the Great Patriotic War. Where is the Soviet Union? Where is Germany, which they defeated? History sometimes returns in ways we do not expect.

Host: The Soviet Union had allies.

Oh, what allies were there? The same allies as today in Ukraine. Allies. Today Ukraine has the same allies. But I say that no one ever thought that in 40 years everything would change like this. Actually, 20 years ago, it was clear what was happening with Germany and what... well, with West Germany at least, where they already drank Bavarian beer, ate sausages, and drove Volkswagens, BMWs, and Mercedes. And in East Germany on the rattlers, on these paper clunkers... everything was already clear. And the Soviet Union, well, where they still lived in barracks. Therefore, it was already clear 20 years ago. Who knows how history will turn regarding... Who knows how it turned out with the Jews over 2000 years. For 2000 years they were chased, trying to destroy this nation, trying by any means. Today, look at Israel. Therefore, as a person descended from this race, from this nation, I believe the most important thing is to save the Ukrainian nation; that is the main thing to do. And then history will show where what land goes; it always goes back and forth, and the people who live on them, again, from my personal experience, common people who need to be fed, they, to them, it does not matter who the king is, Peter I, the Austrians, and so on. In Europe, they... what is important to them is to be left alone so they can have their own household, a cow, and gardens.