Putin May Deploy Belarus Troops Without Lukashenko’s Consent, Expert Warns

Belarusian Forces and the Growing Threat to Ukraine

According to Главком: According to security analyst Pavlo Lakiichuk, Russian President Vladimir Putin could potentially use Belarus’s army in combat operations against Ukraine-even without the knowledge of Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. Lakiichuk, who directs security programs at the Center for Globalistics 'Strategy XXI,' points out that Russia faces a severe manpower shortage, losing between 30,000 and 35,000 soldiers each month. To replenish its ranks, Putin has two main options:

• purchase 50,000 troops from North Korea;
• mobilize Belarus’s armed forces, which number roughly 40,000 to 50,000 personnel.

Lakiichuk argues that Lukashenko does not personally seek war but is caught in a difficult position under Putin’s pressure.

“I do not share the view that Lukashenko himself wants war. He relies on the support of his security forces, especially after 2020,” the expert notes.

However, Lakiichuk believes that Putin

“has wanted, still wants, and will continue to want to use Belarusian resources for war.”

Officer Draft and Lukashenko’s Escalating Rhetoric

On April 17, Lukashenko signed a decree calling up reserve officers for military service-a move that may indicate Belarus is preparing for active operations. At the same time, Lakiichuk warns that Belarusian security forces should tread carefully, as they essentially represent 'a ready-made network of agents.' He suggests Lukashenko could face a situation where his orders are simply ignored by the military.

Adding to the tension, Lukashenko recently threatened NATO countries and Ukraine with the use of the intermediate-range ballistic missile 'Oreshnik.' This statement underscores rising regional instability. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also noted increased activity by Belarusian troops near the border, including the construction of roads and the setup of artillery positions.

“The consequences of such actions should deter Minsk from making fatal mistakes,” Zelensky emphasized.

The situation surrounding Belarus’s military and its potential involvement in the war in Ukraine remains complex and uncertain. Experts warn that Putin may exploit Belarusian forces without Lukashenko’s full awareness, posing a serious threat to regional stability. These developments carry significant implications for security in Eastern Europe, especially given the escalating tensions among Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, as well as the international community’s response to any moves by Minsk. Close monitoring of the evolving situation and its impact on regional security will be essential.

As tensions escalate, the recent decision by Lukashenko to mobilize reserve officers may signal a significant shift in Belarus's military posture. This development raises questions about the potential implications for the region, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. For a deeper understanding of the current situation and its ramifications, read more about the recent military mobilization in Belarus.