Putin Is Losing Both the War and the Battle Over Its Narrative, Says General Ryan

General Ryan’s Military Forecast

According to ХВИЛЯ: Retired Major General Mick Ryan asserts that Vladimir Putin is not only losing on the battlefield but also losing control of the war’s story. According to Ryan, the much-anticipated Russian spring offensive stalled early this year, with Russian forces advancing a mere 17 square kilometers since January. Moscow’s casualties have climbed to between 160,000 and 165,000 personnel, placing an enormous strain on the country. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reports a Russian death-to-wounded ratio of 2:1.

Ryan points out that drones account for 80-90% of Russian losses, highlighting how new technologies are fundamentally reshaping the conflict. The front line now stretches nearly 1,000 kilometers, and with the war in its fourth and a half year, Putin faces serious political dangers. He cannot afford to see hundreds of thousands of combat-hardened veterans return to Russian cities where jobs are scarce.

“Russia’s economy is currently running on a war footing. The last thing Putin needs is to have hundreds of thousands of battle-tested people coming back.”

Mick Ryan

Political Risks for the Kremlin

The Kremlin’s biggest trap lies in the political risks tied to the return of these veterans. Ryan believes the pressure on Putin will become unbearable, forcing him to the negotiating table. “It’s becoming increasingly clear that he won’t win the war-and he’s losing the narrative of this war. He can’t afford to tell Russians a story of defeat after the colossal losses and resources the country has poured in,” the major general stressed.

According to Ryan, Ukraine’s path forward involves ramping up pressure on multiple fronts. This includes:

• Synchronizing tactical, operational, and strategic actions, following the example set in Crimea.
• Accounting for both frontline dynamics and internal political challenges, which could become decisive factors in shaping events.

General Ryan’s remarks underscore the precarious situation facing the Kremlin, as well as the fresh hurdles Russia confronts in a protracted war. Mounting losses and growing discontent within the military could trigger serious political consequences for Putin, which in turn would shape Ukraine’s strategy moving forward. Coordinated action may prove essential for the Ukrainian army as the balance of power on the front continues to shift.

As the situation evolves, the Kremlin's internal assessments are increasingly aligning with General Ryan's observations. Reports indicate that key figures within the government are beginning to recognize that achieving victory over Ukraine is unattainable, further complicating Putin's narrative. For a deeper understanding of these shifting dynamics, explore how Kremlin insiders are grappling with the harsh realities of the ongoing conflict.